FXUS61 KCAR 230938
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
438 AM EST WED DEC 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 
TODAY...THEN EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
FROM THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS SINCE
EVERYTHING CURRENTLY ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. LATEST WSR 88D
IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER CONSOLIDATED SNOW BAND STRETCHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EAST ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND THIS IS
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST NAM12 FORECAST. THUS WE CONTINUED WITH
ALL PREVIOUS WARNINGS AND ADV SINCE THEY STILL LOOKED GOOD. WE DID
OPT HOWEVER TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FOR
ZONES 15/16 SINCE WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...THE SNOW BAND WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER TODAY. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. 
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WITH FAIR CONDITIONS AND MILD DAY TIME HI TEMPS WILL
PREVAIL THU AND FRI...WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY OVRNGT LOW TEMPS
BOTH TNGT AND FRI NGT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL OVR FRESH
DEEP SNOW PACK. WENT BELOW GMOS FOR LOWS ON BOTH NGTS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI AND MID CLDS WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV COMPLEX
SUPPORTING THE MIDWEST PRIMARY SFC LOW AND DEVELOPING WEAK
SECONDARY SFC LOW IN THE MID ATLC STATES. MOST LONGER RANGE MODELS
KEEP THE MID ATLC SECONDARY LOW WEAK AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FA ON
SUN. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WARM SECTOR FROM ENTERING CNTRL ANS
SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA...BUT WARM AIR ALF WILL LIKELY HAVE A
GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO CHG SN TO FZRA/PL OVR NRN AREAS WITH MIXED
PRECIP CHGNG TO ALL RN ACROSS SRN AREAS...WITH PERHAPS MARITIME
WARM SECTOR AIR REACHING AS FAR N AS COASTAL AREAS.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLDER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE XPCTD BEGINNING
VERY LATE SUN NGT WITH THE COOLING TREND CONTG INTO ERLY NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL S/WVS ROTATING ARND A MID LVL BROAD ERN/CNTRL CAN
VORTEX WILL KEEP MCLDY SKIES AND OCNL SN SHWRS TO SPCLY NRN AND
WRN PTNS OF THE FA.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR KCAR/KPQI/KHUL TERMINALS
TODAY IN PERIODS OF SNOW. KBGR/KBHB SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR DUE TO
CIGS AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR IN CIGS AND SCT SNOW
SHOWERS ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR THU THRU SAT...THEN BECOMING MVFR IN SN
NRN TAF SITES AND MIXED PRECIP DOWNEAST LATE SAT NGT AND THEN IFR ON
SUN IN MIXED PRECIP NRN TAF TAF SITES AND RN DOWNEAST SITES.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKLEY
BY EARLY THU MRNG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: AN SCA FOR MSLY NW WINDS WILL BE NEEDED ON THU
BUT WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA THU NGT WITH THE APCH OF THE
SFC RIDGE. NO HDLNS THEN XPCTD FRI THRU SAT. STRONG SCA TO
POSSIBLE MARGINAL GALES MAY BE NEEDED SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH SERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF SECONDARY LOW PRES APCHG FROM THE MID ATLC STATES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     MEZ001>006-010-011-017-031-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
     MEZ015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ030.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...DUDA
MARINE...DUDA/VJN