FXUS62 KMHX 092029
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
329 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING THEN STALL
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SATURDAY AND MOVES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BROAD TROFFING COVERS MUCH OF CONUS WITH A DISTINCT SPLIT FLOW
REGIME. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL HELP INVIRGORATE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A SWATH OF DEEPER
MOISTURE CREEPS UP INTO SOUTH COASTAL NC OVRNIGHT. GOOD MODEL
CONCENSUS FOR KEEPING ASSOCD PCPN MAINLY OFFSHORE BUT WILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG SOUTH COAST (MAINLY SOUTH
OF HATTERAS LATE TONIGHT (AND CONTINUING INTO FIRST HALF OF
THU).
SW TO WEST BNDRY LAYER FLOW AND ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTH WILL HELP INHIBIT TEMPERATURE DECLINE OVRNGT. TEMPS WILL BE
REMAIN ABV CLIMO NORMS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 45-50F DEG RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL GRAZE THE AREA ON THURSDAY
BUT WILL HAVE 2 MAIN IMPACTS. THE FIRST IMPACT WILL BE TO SHUNT
ANY PCPN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OUT TO SEA BY AROUND MIDDAY. THE
SECOND AND MUCH LARGER IMPACT WILL BE TO USHER IN COLD AIR THAT
HAS BEEN BOTTLED UP OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS. HIGHS ON THU
WILL BE LARGELY IN THE MID 50S WHICH IS A BIT BLO NORMAL BUT
THERAFTER TEMPS WILL PLUNGE IN A STRONG CAA SURGE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL DROP INTO MID TO UPPER 20S AWAY FROM THE
COAST AND HIGHS ON FRI ONLY REACHING MID OR UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL
BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS CAA EASES THRU THE PERIOD SO THE
ADDED EFFECTS OF WIND CHILL SHUD BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN COLDER TEMPS LIKELY FRI NIGHT AS BETTER DECOUPLING OCCURS
WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH. MID 20S WILL BE COMMON
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND EVEN OBX HAS A CHANCE OF REACHING NEAR
FREEZING BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURING FOR THE OUTER
BANKS WHICH IS STILL IN GROWING SEASON.
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN ON SATURDAY PER MODEL
TRENDS AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES
MOVES OFF THE SE COAST. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
INFLOW WIL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER COASTAL FRONT WILL MAKE INROADS BUT
FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE A COLD RAIN ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY AND SHUD BE A DRY DAY AS
MAIN LIFT AND MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA EITHER SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MON. MODEL CONCENSUS HARD TO COME BY GOING INTO
MIDWEEK SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR DAYS 6/7.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WED...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WELL WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL JET SLOWLY LIFTING OUT. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDING EAST.
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 310 PM WED...HAVE DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY SINCE SPEEDS
ARE NO LONGER MEETING CRITERIA. WILL KEEP GALE WARNING FOR THE
OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE LEG BUT WILL DROP ELSEWHERE AND PUT UP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BUILDING EAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RESULT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THEN MOVE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW TO AFFECT THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND. WENT CLOSE TO HPC WIND GUIDANCE. 12Z WAVEWATCH SEAS LOOK
GOOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...MADE NO CHANGES BEYOND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
LOW.
WILL LEAVE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-103-
104.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA
