FXUS64 KLZK 070854
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
254 AM CST MON DEC 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MOISTURE HAD MOVED INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD...EXITING THE STATE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY...RETURNING
NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE...OUT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS
FRONT EXITS THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...WITH
DRY WEATHER RETURNING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS REMAIN IN LESS THAN IDEAL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING CONCERNING A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE COMING IN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. GFS BRINGS THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS THIS WAVE FURTHER NORTH...WEAKER AND NOT UNTIL SATURDAY.
CANADIAN SOLUTION SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN WITH NOGAPS MORE IN LINE WITH
GFS SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WILL LEAN CAUTIOUSLY TOWARDS THE
GFS/NOGAPS SOLUTION.
PERIOD INITIATES WITH SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND BROAD TROF OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE NATION. MOISTURE INCREASES
AND AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA. SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY
DYNAMIC AT THIS POINT AND WILL ONLY KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS
BUFKIT/MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL SOMEWHAT REWORK
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND TAKE A WAIT AND SEE
APPROACH.
ONCE THE WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN
NATURE WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT
LITTLE IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME
MODERATION LATER ON AS FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MAV/MEX TRENDS LOOK
REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED BUT WILL GO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE SPECIFIC NUMBERS ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 48 33 46 38 / 10 50 70 50
CAMDEN AR 54 41 56 44 / 10 60 70 50
HARRISON AR 44 31 44 31 / 10 50 70 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 51 36 51 39 / 10 60 70 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 50 38 50 40 / 10 60 70 50
MONTICELLO AR 51 42 57 45 / 20 70 70 60
MOUNT IDA AR 50 35 50 36 / 10 50 70 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 45 31 44 35 / 10 50 70 50
NEWPORT AR 48 35 48 40 / 10 50 70 50
PINE BLUFF AR 50 40 53 43 / 10 70 70 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 48 34 47 35 / 10 50 70 40
SEARCY AR 49 36 48 39 / 10 60 70 50
STUTTGART AR 49 39 51 41 / 10 60 70 50
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60 / LONG TERM...56
