FXUS64 KCRP 241136
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
536 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT NOW COMPLETELY THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL
ERODE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH TERMINALS BECOMING CAVU BY
MIDDAY. GRADIENT TO RELAX SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS COLD DRY AIRMASS
FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY)...MAIN FOCUS THIS
PACKAGE IS ON WIND FORECASTS. COLD FRONT NEARLY DONE BLASTING
THROUGH THE CWA. PRECIPITATION ENDING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST...AND SO WILL JUST HAVE EARLY MORNING WORDING FOR THE
EAST...THEN CLEARING SKIES. MOST LOCATIONS REPORTED SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS WITH THE FROPA.
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE CRANKING THEM UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO THE REGION. INSTEAD OF PLAYING
STOP AND GO WITH THE WIND ADVISORY...HAVE OPTED TO JUST MERGE THE
TWO SECTIONS INTO A SINGLE ADVISORY TO RUN UNTIL SUNSET TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN A STRONG SCA OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS WILL KEEP AREAS WELL OFFSHORE IN ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR SOME TIME.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...WITH PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES REACHING THE LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
DRY...COOL AIR WILL PROVIDE FOR A SUNNY CHRISTMAS DAY FOR THE
COASTAL BEND...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SNEAKING IN LATER IN
THE DAY. THAT SAME COOL AIR WILL KEEP HIGHS TEN OR SO DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AS THE DEEP LOW
WOBBLES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. GFS/ECMWF/NAM SHOW THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE IN THE 290-300K LAYER OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND AND CHANCE OVER THE GULF WATERS FOR SATURDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND
EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AS WELL. THE STRONG LOW WILL BE ON THE
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
NEXT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA ON
MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA. BEST PERIOD FOR
PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE MEX
POPS SEEM SUSPICIOUSLY LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY POPS
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS THAT REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKEN
AS IT LIFTS OUT ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING....WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE ENERGY
DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WENT GENERALLY ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW
GUIDANCE MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
89/TMT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 66 38 56 42 58 / 20 0 0 10 20
VICTORIA 60 32 54 34 55 / 20 0 0 10 10
LAREDO 68 40 60 41 59 / 0 0 0 10 10
ALICE 65 36 58 39 59 / 10 0 0 10 20
ROCKPORT 64 39 54 43 58 / 20 0 0 10 20
COTULLA 65 35 57 35 60 / 0 0 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 66 37 57 40 58 / 10 0 0 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 65 44 55 45 58 / 20 0 0 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O'CONNOR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
JV/71...SHORT TERM
TT/89...LONG TERM
