FXUS64 KMEG 250530 AAC
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1130 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
DISCUSSION...
DRY SLOT SLOWLY WORKING INTO NE AR WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
PINWHEELING NORTHWARD. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS
PHILLIPS COUNTY AND PROGRESS RAPIDLY ACROSS NE AR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LIGHT
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS COLD AIR GETS FORCED INTO THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW. CURRENT FORECAST OKAY FOR NOW.
UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.
AC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS TRYING THE MAKE ITS WAY
INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND SHOULD REACH EASTERN ARKANSAS LATER
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN MUCH LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED IN AREAS
WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 00Z TONIGHT AND NOT EXTEND IT.
WINDS HAVE REMAINED AT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF CHRISTMAS DAY. HAVE EXTENDED
THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CANCEL THE HIGH
WIND WATCH. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. WITH THE GROUND REMAINING
QUITE WARM AND WET DO NO EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 2000
FEET CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE ABOVE THIS
LAYER. SNOW MAY TRY TO FALL DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT MAY HAVE
A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND SO AGAIN LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SO DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN. CAN'T RULE SOME FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT CHANCE
IS VERY SMALL SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW.
DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
OR SNOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST AND MOVE EAST. THIS SYSTEM MAY SPREAD
SOME RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE.
SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS REDEVELOPING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT TAF ISSUANCE AS STRONG VORT MAX APPROACHES.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY NORTH OF I-40 AFTER 08-10Z. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
OVERALL...CIGS EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING THEN CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD 26/00Z AS THE LOW
PULLS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
THE ASOS AT KTUP IS NOT CURRENTLY TRANSMITTING ANY DATA...SO
ADDED AMD NOT SKED THERE.
BORGHOFF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 33 38 30 45 / 80 20 10 10
MKL 34 37 27 43 / 90 20 10 10
JBR 32 36 26 40 / 90 20 10 10
TUP 35 41 28 46 / 90 20 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-
DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-
SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
