FXUS61 KRLX 090544
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1245 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING TO LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AS IS FOR NOW. IN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...GETTING A BREAK FROM GLAZE ACCUMULATION.
BEEN GETTING REPORTS OF MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION...MOSTLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. BREAK IN PRECIP WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED
TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING. SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 05-06Z ONCE PRECIP STARTS UP...UNTIL LOW
LEVEL TEMPS WARM SUFFICIENTLY FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN.
WINDS ARE SCREAMING JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE
GROUND...WITH 50-60 KNOTS ON THE RLX 88D AT 3-5 THOUSAND FEET...AND
UP TO 80 KNOTS AT THIS LEVEL ON THE JKL 88D. WITH A SIGNIFICANT
INVERSION EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT...THESE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BOTTLED UP ALOFT FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE WITH
EXPECTED FROPA BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z...WHEN DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT CAN BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS TIME...WITH H850
WINDS DROPPING TO 55-60 KNOTS. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY/WARNING SETUP
LOOKS GOOD...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN UPGRADE NEAR/WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.
OTHERWISE...UPDATED POPS/TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
REMAIN BELOW AN INCH...AND DO NOT FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT WATER
PROBLEMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT
WILL RAPIDLY SWING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD GIVE
THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE EVENT. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO WITH A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY AND THE LIFTED
INDICES APPROACHING ZERO AS THE COLD POOL IN THE UPPER LEVELS
FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE RAIN
SHOWERS TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKES HOLD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE
ACHIEVED EARLY ON...BUT OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE BIT OF A HIT...AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE RELUCTANT TO VEER TOWARDS A BETTER DIRECTION
FOR SUCH A SCENARIO. THAT BEINGS SAID...THE THREAT WILL NOT BE
GONE...AND WILL SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF UPSLOPE IN THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS COUNTIES OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
DEWPOINTS INDICATE VERY DRY AIR WILL FLOW IN AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST BECOMES VERY
IMPORTANT FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD OCCUR IF THE SKY CLEARS...BUT RIGHT
NOW...HOLDING ONTO SOME MOISTURE LAGGING WHERE THE UPSLOPE SNOW
FELL. IF THIS GOES CLEAR...JUST A SMALL AMOUNT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND
UP IN RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR AND
CLEAR SKY COULD REQUIRE A DROP TO THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES. AS
OF RIGHT NOW...TEENS LOOK TO DOMINATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A VERY COLD AND DRY AIR MASS PER
NAM/SREF SHOWING H8 TEMPS IN THE MINUS 13-15C. STILL SOME GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST FRI NIGHT. LOWS FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S SOUTHERN COALFIELDS...TO THE MID TEENS NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EAST AND
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA...TO BRING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...SATURDAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PCPN EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW FRI NIGHT...
CHANGING TO RAIN AND MIX SAT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AS WARM ADVECTION
TAKES PLACE. HOWEVER...PCPN CHANGES BACK TO SNOW SAT NIGHT AREAWIDE.
DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN...BUT WENT FASTER THAN MODELS WITH LIGHT PCPN
ON SAT. STICK CLOSER TO HPC TEMPERATURES TWEAKING DOWN FEW DEGREES
LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEAVY RAIN FROM POTENT STORM SYSTEM HAS CREATED WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ACROSS THE REGION. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO SE OHIO AFTER 12Z...AND EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OF WV BY
18Z. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 50 KTS.
HIGHEST GUSTS/WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
AFTER 18Z...FOR A GRADUAL RETURN OF VFR TO MANY LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL HOLD ONTO AT LEAST MVFR CIGS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AFTER 22Z. EXPECT MVFR/ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
SNOW. STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL IN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>032-039-040.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ033>038-046-047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-
047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ/JS
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL
