FXUS64 KMOB 261936 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1131 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 26/18Z...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF AFTER SUNSET AND INCREASING A BIT AFTER SUNRISE.
/77
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.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SHOULD BE A NICE BUT COOLISH
THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT WITH A FREEZE WARNING UP FOR THE INTERIOR
ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK BORDER LINE WITH MOST LOWS
BETWEEN 29 AND 33 ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A FACTOR IN THE TEMPERATURES
STAYING A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE SURFACE WINDS OF 5 MILES AN
HOUR OR MORE MOST OF THE NIGHT PLUS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AS THE JET STREAM CRUISES OVER HEAD. DID GO AHEAD AND REMOVE
THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AS POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER
WINDS NEAR THE COAST...SOME CIRRUS AND HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 75
PERCENT FOR THE LOWEST READINGS SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO FORM ON SURFACE VEGETATION FOR FROST. WILL CONCEDE THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTTY PATCHES OF FROST IN LOW AREAS AND INANIMATE
OBJECTS SUCH AS CARS AND SUCH. SHOULD NOTICE SOME INCREASE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
AREA. 11/DF
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGH
WILL GENERALLY BE CENTERED OVER OUR FCST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY...SO WE EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S (EXCEPT LOWER 40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST)
AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION...AND WEAK
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN MODERATING OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WITH LOWS WARMING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL WARM
FROM THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BY
SUNDAY. AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE FCST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FCST
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT NEARS OUR REGION...WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS AND POTENTIALLY STRONGEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FROPA...BUT HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THAT POTENTIAL. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS A LAGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN COOL BY
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BY MID WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOW/MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS. 12/DS
&&
.MARINE...THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING THEN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE COOLER AIR WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES. SHOULD SEE
WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING...REMAINING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ARRIVES...BECOMING SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE MARINE AREA. A LITTLE MORE VARIANCE IN
THE GUIDANCE THE FIRST OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOWING A SURFACE LOW APPROACHING BUT AT DIFFERENT TIMES AND
STRENGTH. MADE AN ATTEMPT TO BLEND THE TWO AND AGREE WITH NEIGHBORS.
THE EURO WAS THE WEAKER AND SLOWER OF THE TWO WITH THE GFS AND THE
MARINE MODELS STRONGER. HAVE THE WINDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BECOMING NORTHERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE RETURNS ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS. 11/DF
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
FALL INTO THE MID 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES WILL BE NEAR THE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OF LONG ENOUGH DURATION TO WARRANT A WATCH OR WARNING
AT THIS TIME. 12/DS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 60 34 61 37 / 00 00 00 05
PENSACOLA 63 39 62 40 / 00 00 00 05
DESTIN 65 43 61 44 / 00 00 00 05
EVERGREEN 61 31 60 32 / 05 00 00 05
WAYNESBORO 59 29 61 33 / 00 00 00 05
CAMDEN 60 33 60 33 / 10 05 05 05
CRESTVIEW 64 32 62 32 / 00 00 00 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND
SANTA ROSA.
MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
