FXUS61 KBGM 251128
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
628 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO OUR AREA LATE TODAY WELL AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT BEFORE A CHANGEOVER
TO ALL RAIN BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO MUCH
COLDER AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 530 AM...JUST SOME CLARIFICATION TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THAT IS OUT NOW. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS ADVISORY
WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. SLEET AND SNOW WAS ALSO MENTIONED IN THIS
ADVISORY BECAUSE DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF PRECIP...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 5KFT.
THIS TYPE OF SOUNDING WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN
BUT SOME SLEET OR SNOW CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS THE COLUMN COOLS
THROUGH SATURATION. THIS PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX WILL BE SHORT IN
DURATION AS A WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS WILL CHANGE MOST OF THE
PRECIP OVER TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. FARTHER EAST A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED BECAUSE BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THIS
REGION...ENOUGH OF AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL EXIST THAT ONLY
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW...

AS OF 406 AM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 989 MB LOW OVER EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH A 1036MB HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA...RIDGING
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON OUR
DOORSTEP NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY ADVANCE OVERHEAD TODAY.
AN AREA OF STRATUS TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WESTWARD
THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THIS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LL
MOISTURE BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 2KFT WILL CREATE CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST. LITTLE HOPE FOR SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH LOW STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A THICKENING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL DECK. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THE STRATUS MAY BREAK EARLY ENOUGH FOR A FILTERED SUNSHINE
FOR A FEW HOURS. YOU KNOW SUN CHANCES LOOK BLEAK WHEN YOU ARE
HOLDING OUT FOR FILTERED SUN.

MAIN STORY WILL BE LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE
NAM HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BY JUST A
BIT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRE DUSK PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FINGER LAKES AND NORTHERN PA. PRECIP WILL FALL MOSTLY IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AT THE START...BUT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER AREAS FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH NEPA.

TONIGHT....THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH WHILE A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL HOLD ITS
GROUND...ALLOWING A NICE FLOW OF COLD AIR TO FUNNEL INTO OUR AREA
ON EASTERLY WINDS. WITH A CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IN
PLACE AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...I WENT WITH THE
NAM12 MODEL FOR ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION IN DEPICTING THE COLD AIR
POCKETS IN OUR AREA. PTYPE LOOKS TO BE EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...THE COLUMN COOLS
ENOUGH WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO GO NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ALONG THE
0C LINE FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 5KFT. ONE COULD ARGUE THAT AS
THE COLUMN IS COOLING RIGHT AT THE START....A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WITH THAT SAID THIS WOULD BE ONLY AT THE ONSET
AS A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR MOVES IN AROUND 2KFT. A NICE FREEZING
RAIN SOUNDING FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT. ASIDE FROM AREAS EAST OF
81...SURFACE TEMPS ARE CRITICALLY CLOSE FOR FREEZING RAIN AS WE HOVER
RIGHT AROUND 32 ALL NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO OUR RECENT COLD
STRETCH AND A VERY COLD GROUND (ROAD SURFACE TEMPS RIGHT NOW ARE
AROUND 20F)...CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
IS A BIT HIGHER THAN USUAL EVEN THOUGH WE WILL BE SO CLOSE TO THE
32 MARK. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WHICH WERE ISSUED THURSDAY WILL
BE EXPANDED WITH THE THREAT OF A TRACE OR MORE OF FREEZING RAIN
EXPECTED.

FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY RAIN FOR MOST AREAS BY 15Z
SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE TEMPS MAY NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. SINCE WE DON'T HAVE AN
ADVISORY OUT YET HERE AND WE ARE LOOKING AT AN ALL FREEZING RAIN
EVENT (NO SNOW OR SLEET)....A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED HERE. GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
EXPECTED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...WITH A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED IN THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 AM...PCPN WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE SAT NGT AS LOPRES
ALONG EAST COAST SHUNTS SFC TROF EAST INTO NE. CLDR AIR WILL ALLOW
RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW OVRNGT. SFC TEMPS WILL DETERMINE EXTENT OF
RAIN/FZRA POSSIBLE BUT FOR NOW HV SIMPLIFIED THINGS AND MENTION
JUST RA/SN MIX. EXPECT PCPN TO HANG ON LONGEST ACRS THE EAST WHERE
LKLY-CAT POPS CONT THRU 12Z SUN.

DRY SLOT ON SUN WILL RESULT IN VRY LITTLE PCPN RMNDR OF THE WEEKEND. 
FLOW WL TURN BACK TO THE SW WITH LK EFFECT SNOW HOLDING OFF THRU END 
OF SHORT TERM AS UL TROF HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST. 

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN ABV NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH MAXES TOPPING OUT IN 
THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 406 AM...SVRL WVS PROGGED TO PASS THRU TUESDAY EVENTUALLY TURNING
FLOW TO THE NW. H8 TEMPS PLUMMET TO BLO -20C RESULTING IN PLENTY
OF LK INSTABILITY FOR LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THRU WED. CANNOT RULE
OUT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACRS UPSTATE NY DRG THIS
TIME...BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE FLOW WHICH FOR NOW LOOKS TO
BE 300-320 DEGREES PER GFS. HWVR 00Z EURO BUILDS SFC HIPRES IN BY
12Z WED WITH ONLY A QUICK SHOT OF LES DRG THE EXTNDD PD. THUS
EXTNDD FCST UP IN THE AIR GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES IN LATEST
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 630 AM...IFR TO MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KSYR WHERE WE
ARE CURRENTLY VFR. STRATUS IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND IS TRYING TO MOVE WEST. CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE IT PREVAILING SO I INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
NOW AND WILL WATCH TRENDS.

WE MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WEATHER BY MID MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BUT ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS (IFR AT KBGM) ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OUT OF THE EAST...EXCEPT BECOMING GUSTY AT KRME LATE IN THE DAY
DUE TO FUNNELING UP THE MOHAWK VALLEY. RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AT FIRST WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL FREEZING RAIN EXCEPT AT
KITH AND KAVP.

.OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT...MVFR IN RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. 

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN ICE/RAIN/SNOW.

SUN/MON/TUE...MVFR WITH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOSTLY AT NY
SITES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ022>025-036-044-045-055-056.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ062.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-037-046-057.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ015>018.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...HEDEN