FXUS64 KTSA 072338
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
538 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAILED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO OVERRUN SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. AS STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CEILINGS/
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AT LEAST LIFR CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITHIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CA PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE/WED. 

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS NEAR STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISING. MODELS HAVE SHOWN
FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS RUN TO RUN AND AS A RESULT WILL USE A BLEND
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
WILL DEVELOP WITH IN THE WAA AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OILTON TO MIAMI WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY MIX IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. 

PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 412 TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE EXITING LOW A CHANCE OF RAIN
MIXING WITH SNOW WILL BEC0ME POSSIBLE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL PRECIP LOOKS TO COME TO AN
END FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.

ARTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR FOR THURS MORNING...WITH
LOWER TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE TEMPS LOOK TO
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AS THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CWA FRI/SAT. SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL
RAIN EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. 

IN THE FAR EXTENDED...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO
POSSIBLY AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE SUN-TUE TIME FRAME. GFS IS
SLOWER AND WARMER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL LEAVE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AND UPDATE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12