FXUS63 KMPX 060950
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
350 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SOME WEAK CAA
STRATUS/FLURRIES WORKING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN MN THIS MORNING.
MAY WORK INTO ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. WEAK TROUGH EXITING TO THE EAST THIS MORNING LEAVING LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER IA AND MN SRN MN OVERNIGHT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT
MORE CONFLUENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...SO SNOW AREA SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY NARROW. STILL LOOKS LIKE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MN MAY
PICK UP A FLUFFY INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...DRY MID LEVEL
SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT MAY GENERATE A FEW
FLURRIES AS TROUGH EXITS TOT HE EAST. THIS HINTED AT IN THE NAM
BUFKIT PROFILES. COLD SFC RDG OVER THE OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN MN THIS MORNING DID PROVIDE ANOTHER NIGHT OF SINGLE DIGITS
WITH A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE LOW SPOTS OF THE FAR WEST.
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE DURING THE DAY OVER THE WEST AND SHOULD WARM
CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE EAST. WILL COLD A BIT COLDER WEST.

NEXT SYSTEM IS PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE BUT THERE ARE A FEW MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN SFC LOW TRACK. 00Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF ARE
SIMILAR WITH TRACK NOW...FROM CO/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AREA TUE
EVENING TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z WED. THIS TRACK IS FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTION OF THE CWA.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING 5TH PERIOD WATCH...BUT COLLABORATION YIELDED
STRONGLY WORDED HWO FOR NOW. SNOW SHOULD LIFT INTO MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND
SATURATION OCCURS. MAY TAK AWHILE OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AS
ATMOSPHERE WILL BY RATHER DRY TO START OUT. SOLID 2-3 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD GENERATE SOME 6 INCH
VALUES. ONLY QUESTION IS THE SLR FOR THE STORM. MAY BY AVERAGE
MORE CLOSE TO 20:1 IN THE NORTHWEST AND AT LEAST 16:1 IN THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS INCREASE THE WINDS TUE NIGHT AS LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. ANY SNOW WILL BE BLOWN AROUND DURING THE
NIGHT AND INTO WED. QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY STORM WILL EXIT TOT EH
EAST WED. LEFT THE CURRENT TREND IN THE GRIDS NOW...WITH
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA DURING THE DAY. 

COLDER AIR WILL DROP IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE
FRESH SNOW COVER. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE BELOW NORMAL THEN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 
AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS 030-050 OVER SE MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI IN AN
AREA OF WEAK LIFT WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z OVER WI NEAR
KEAU AND UNTIL ABOUT 08Z NEAR KMSP. SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS SW OF
KRWF GENERALLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE SW AND SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SW
AS WEAK RIDGING TAKES OVER. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF CONCERN IS A
LARGER AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN MN WHICH IS DROPPING SW AT
AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE KAXN AREA
10Z-12Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING BUT LIFTING SOME IN THE
AFTERNOON. PRESENT THINKING IS THAT MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT KRWF
BUT LESSER CHANCES AT KSTC. A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH COULD
BRING IN LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE
PERIOD LEAVING SCT-BKN 030-050 CLDS UNDER A MID LEVEL CIGS FROM
THE AFTERNOON TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

DWE/JPR