FXUS62 KTAE 101422
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
915 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS IS STILL CONTINUING TO IMPACT 
THE EASTERN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA THIS MORNING. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS 
SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE BAND CONTINUES 
TO GRADUALLY PUSH EWD. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS PUSHES INTO THE REGION 
BEHIND THIS BAND OF SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER IS STILL 
RELATIVELY HEAVY IN THE WESTERN ZONES...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AS 
THE DAY WEARS ON. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW 
CLEARING AROUND DOTHAN AND ALBANY. SFC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THE COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT IS NOW CURRENTLY 
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FL. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 50S EAST OF 
TALLAHASSEE AND MID TO LOW 40S TO THE WEST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD NOT 
EVEN REACH THE 60S TODAY AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS INFILTRATED 
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED LAST NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH MON.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS...AND SHOULD REMAIN 
HEIGHTENED UNTIL AT LEAST SAT MORNING. THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF PERIODS 
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER... 
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT. AFTER SAT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
AND REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS PERSIST ACROSS THE VLD AND TLH TERMINALS THIS 
MORNING...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THESE CIGS IS APPROACHING FROM THE 
WEST NOW AND SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER 
OF THE TAF CYCLE. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO PLUMMET AS DRIER AIR MOVES 
INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF A WARM UP 
TODAY. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
OFFSET THIS TO A DEGREE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING IN THE EVENT ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED TO THE RED FLAG 
WARNING...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER.  

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT CARYVILLE IS NOW BELOW 
FLOOD STAGE AND IS SLOWLY RECEDING. DOWNSTREAM AT BRUCE...MODERATE 
FLOODING CONTINUES. THE SLOW RECESSION WILL BRING THE RIVER BELOW 
FLOOD STAGE SOMETIME ON SAT. THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN 
REMAINS A FEW FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...BUT IS ALSO IN SLOW 
RECESSION. THESE RECESSIONS COULD COME TO AN ABRUPT HALT ON SAT IF 
THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT DEVELOPS.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

GA...NONE.

FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY TO 6 PM EST /
     5 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...
     CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND 
     WALTON...JACKSON...LEON...LIBERTY...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST SAT   
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER  
     TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM           
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE 
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM 
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. 

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...M BARRY
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GODSEY