FXUS64 KBMX 090817
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
217 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
THIS MORNING. BY NOON TODAY...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WILL LEAVE THE LAKE WIND IN EFFECT FOR NOW...BUT SOME LOCATIONS
ALONG THE NORTHERN ZONES COULD APPROACH THE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
AS FAR AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST...WE CONTINUE TO LOOK AT TWO
EVENTS. ONE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER PRECIP SATURDAY MORNING
AND THE OTHER IS THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE TWO EVENTS HAVE MAJOR QUESTIONS MARKS
SO LET ME DISCUSS EACH OF THEM SEPARATELY.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY NIGHT A SUB-
TROPICAL JET WILL BEGIN TO PUMP IN MOISTURE OVER THE COLD
AIRMASS. AFTER LOOKING THROUGH BUFKIT AND BUFR SOUNDINGS...THERE
IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT FROZEN PRECIP COULD FALL ACROSS SOME
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE BARELY ABOVE FREEZING
WHICH WOULD KEEP ALL PRECIP LIQUID. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THEY WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING...THIS WARRANTS CLOSE ATTENTION OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE
HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR. THE 18Z
GFS WAS SHOWING 1042 MB HIGH APPROACHING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE 00Z RUN HAS NOW BACKED OFF AND HOLD OFF
MOST OF THIS COLD AIR UP NORTH.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE TOO DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. ALL THE MEMBERS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. THIS IS ALSO
REFLECTED IN THE LARGE VARIATIONS IN THE MEXMOS FROM RUN TO RUN.
AS A RESULT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK'S
FORECAST.
10/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...08Z TAF DISCUSSION.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING TO MOVE OUT
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS STILL REMAIN. LOW
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR
LATE THIS MORNING. ONE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND COULD AFFECT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS
THEY WERE EARLIER. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG TONIGHT DUE TO ALL THE
HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES.
10/ARM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 56 27 45 26 45 / 0 10 0 10 10
ANNISTON 62 29 47 27 47 / 0 10 0 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 62 28 47 26 49 / 0 10 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 58 30 47 28 46 / 0 10 0 10 10
CALERA 64 31 48 27 47 / 0 10 0 10 10
AUBURN 69 33 49 28 48 / 20 10 0 10 10
MONTGOMERY 68 35 51 29 51 / 10 10 0 10 20
TROY 71 37 50 31 51 / 20 10 10 10 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.
&&
$$
