FXUS63 KSGF 030544
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS CONTINUED TO SPREAD INTO THE OZARKS AND
OSAGE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
SNOW. PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AXIS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES WILL
END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE TRANSITIONS TO THE
EAST. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO COOL. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REINFORCING
THE COLD AIRMASS INFILTRATING THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OR COLDER BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
STRATUS AND STROTO CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AS A VORTICITY
AXIS AND COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH. A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.
FOSTER
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MED RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN RATHER MUDDLE REGARDING
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AGREEMENT EXISTS IN FLATTENING THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...WITH TROUGHING FOCUSING OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. THE DEVIL MOST DEFINITELY LIES IN THE
DETAILS...WITH TIMING INDIVIDUAL WAVES EMANATING FROM THIS WESTERN
TROUGH THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH SOME RISK FOR PRECIP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AS FOR THE PARTICULARS...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO HEAD EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FAST MOVING FRONT IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT OFF THE WESTERN
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...GIVEN TIMING DISCREPANCIES HAVE FOLLOWED A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WITH CHC POPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THERMAL PROFILES WITH THESE DISTURBANCES FOR PRECIP TYPE
IMPLICATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED A CLIMO VIEWPOINT WITH MAINLY
A RAIN SITUATION. TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY HIGHS...WILL BE SEVEN OR
SO DEGREES BELOW AVG...LOWS WILL STAY AT OR JUST ABOVE AVG.
GAGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR TO VFR STRATUS DECK WILL MOVE OVER THE SPRINGFIELD AND SALEM
PLATEAUS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE JOPLIN...SPRINGFIELD AND
BRANSON TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE.
ANGLE
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
