FXUS62 KFFC 092333
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
633 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO ADD LOW POPS DOWN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AS THE FLOW ALOFT
GOES NEARLY ZONAL. THIS COUPLED WITH A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THE SOUTH...AND TWEAKED LOW TEMPS UP A BIT THERE. OTHERWISE... REST
OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39
----------------------PREVIOUS DISCUSSION------------------------
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIP FIELD HAS
ALREADY EXITED THE AREA. PLAN TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE FAR SE ZONES THIS EVENING WITH AN ACTIVE SW FLOW STILL
ALOFT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ON TAP TONIGHT AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH A BRISK NW WIND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... PLAN TO ALLOW
THE WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TO
EXPIRE AT THAT TIME AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN SLIPS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF...THEN TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUMP GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER A COOL
NE-EAST SURFACE FLOW...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAINS SPREADING OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GA SATURDAY- SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE MAYBE ONE HALF
INCH ACROSS NORTH GA AND POSSIBLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FURTHER SOUTH.
EXPECT THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A HAMILTON TO MILLEDGEVILLE LINE. SO FAR IT APPEARS THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD
PROBLEMS...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY WITH AREA GROUNDS
ALREADY WELL SATURATED.
IT APPEARS THE RAINS WILL NOT SPREAD INTO NORTH GA FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP... BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE TIMING OF THINGS CLOSELY FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...WENT WITH OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THEN LEANED TOWARD A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR REMAINING
SHORT TERM PERIOD TEMPS.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERRUNNING RAINS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT... BUT ANY BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WON'T
MENTION THUNDER JUST YET AS INSTABILITIES REMAIN SOUTH. HOWEVER...MAY
HAVE TO ADD THIS WORDING WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AS A DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES FOR SOME AREAS TO BRIEFLY DIP
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT FUEL
MOISTURE'S TO REMAIN WET FROM RECENT RAINS AND DURATIONS TO BE
LESS THAN 4 HOURS. THEREFORE... NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG
WARNING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS.
VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED. GRADIENT RELAXING OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15KT FOR THE NIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20KT
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRIER AND COLDER AIR
PUSHES INTO THE STATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 62 34 51 28 47 / 10 5 5 10 10
ATLANTA 62 32 48 27 44 / 10 5 5 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 51 28 43 20 43 / 10 0 5 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 66 29 46 22 45 / 10 0 5 10 10
COLUMBUS 68 38 52 32 49 / 10 5 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 54 31 48 23 47 / 10 5 5 10 10
MACON 71 38 55 31 49 / 20 5 5 10 10
ROME 54 29 47 27 47 / 5 0 5 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 69 33 49 26 45 / 10 5 5 10 10
VIDALIA 72 43 55 34 51 / 30 10 20 0 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...
MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...
PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...
SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...
TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.
&&
$$
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