FXUS62 KMHX 011422
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
922 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST TO WELL WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...LIFTING A WARM FRONT
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY GRAZE
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE TROF EXITING THE NC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A SWATH
OF LOW CLOUDS HANGING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
SHUD MIX OUT AS A DEEP DRY NW FLOW SETS UP TODAY. THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL OFFSET INCOMING CAA AND HIGH TEMPS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 60
OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTN UNDER FULL SUN. DEEPER CAA/LESS
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE
NE FCST AREA AND OBX.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SLIDES ACRS THE AREA TNGT. AS SUCH...OVERNGT LOW
TEMPS MAY BE REALIZED EARLIER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL CYCLE AS LAYERED
CLOUDINESS AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW INFILTRATE THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME UPPER 30S PSBL OVR INLAND AREAS BEFORE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS TAKE HOLD LATE.
VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PICK UP GULF MOISTURE AS IT CROSSES
TEXAS TONIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WED. THE
ACCOMPANYING STRONG SFC LOW WILL LIFT NNE FROM THE GULF COAST TO
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON WED. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THRU THE SE STATES ON WED PLACING EASTERN NC FIRMLY IN WARM SECTOR
BY WED EVE. LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL HIGHLIGHT
WED MORN WITH A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA
DURING THE AFTN. DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE THE STRONG WAA PATN WILL
LIFT TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN DURING
THE AFTN.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN MOVES PCPN THRU QUICKLY WED EVE.
HOWEVER MODEL CONCENSUS STILL SUPPORTS PCPN CHANCES THRU MUCH OF
WED NIGHT. CONCENSUS ALSO FAVORS THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WED
NIGHT IN THE INCREASINGLY HIGH SHEAR BUT LOW INSTABILITY
ENVIRONMENT TYPICAL OF NIGHTTIME WINTER SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE
ACCOMPANYING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BUT A FEW TORNADOS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PUSHING OUT A LARGE
HODOGRAPH CURVE. CONTINUED WAA SHUD LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP
WITH LOWS NEAR 60 FOR MOST AREAS. HPC QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND
ONE HALF INCH LOOK ON TRACK. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN NOT LIKELY TO
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOOD PROBLEMS BUT LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS MAY
PRODUCE FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WED NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCTD SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY OTHERWISE MAINLY QUIET AND COOL THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE W WITH UPR TRF CROSSING. A BIT MORE MODEL
CONCENSUS FOR A SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR CST LATER FRI NIGHT AND
SAT AHEAD OF UPR TRF WITH SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION. MADE NO
CHANGES TO POPS AS YET BUT DID BOOST CLOUD COVER. SAT LOOKS TO BE
COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
30S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 40S OBX.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...MORNING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS
HAVE BURNED OFF AND WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SCT-BKN
STRATOCU IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTH 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE COAST. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL PASS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WIND
FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE. STRONG
LOW LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SEEN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
WITH SUSTAINED 50+ KNOTS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET AGL WEDNESDAY
EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON
THURSDAY...VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
WEST NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR SKIES IN THE
EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
VFR FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES BY OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF SEAS AT
6.2 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY...WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT MARINE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE AND MOVING EAST.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS STILL ONGOING BUT WILL BE ENDING THIS
MORNING. CURRENT ENDING TIMES FOR SCA STILL LOOK GOOD EXCEPT FOR
ALBEMARLE SOUND WHERE SCA CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED...SO WILL MAKE NO
CHANGE TO CURRENT HEADLINES EXCEPT THE ALBEMARLE. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GOOD WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
THROUGH THE AREA. MIDWEEK EVENT STILL LOOKS SIGNIFICANT WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING RAPIDLY UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH FROM THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY. WIND FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS VERY IMPRESSIVE.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE WINDS AS THE GFS
WINDS STILL LOOK A BIT OVERDONE MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALES
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...BUT EVEN THERE WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 35
KNOTS. WILL INCLUDE GUST WORDING IN THE ZONES. STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE
NOW MOVING A LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST...WHERE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER
AND FURTHER EAST. HERE AGAIN THE ECMWF IS THE FAVORED SOLUTION.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...JBM/BTC/RF
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA
