FXUS63 KGRB 260945
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
345 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN WISCONSIN TO AN END BY MIDDAY. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN FAR NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
DAY BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION AS GROUND IS WARM AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY NOT THAT COLD. WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BUT INVERSION HEIGHT IS LOW AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS CURRENTLY
UPSTREAM AS THERE IS DECENT SUBSIDENCE...BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH
REALLY CLEAR SKIES AS THE MANY LAKES IN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA ARE UNFROZEN AND WILL HELP MOISTEN LOW LEVELS. WENT A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND WARM GROUND.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE...THE FIRST DAY WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN A LONG TIME. IT WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMALS BUT MUCH CLOSER TO WHAT WE EXPECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DURING THIS PERIOD THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS FROM A WEAK RIDGE TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW BEFORE A LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE. THE END
OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. MODELS HAD SOME SMALL QPF IN THE FORECAST
AREA AS A SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WISCONSIN...FOLLOWED BY
SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS SO THAT WILL PROBABLY NOT EVEN SHOW UP IN
THE ZONES. HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN VILAS COUNTY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WINDS AND SURFACE TO 850MB LAPSE RATES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. BUT THE WINDS QUICKLY BACK AND SHOULD NO
LONGER BE FAVORABLE FOR LES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING
BEGINS AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THAT PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY TOO.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME COLDER EACH DAY ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES. BUT THEY SHOULD STILL BE NEAR SEASON NORMALS DURING THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE RISING TODAY AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON IN
MOST PLACES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING BY 15Z AT
GRB/ATW/OSH/MTW/SUE WHILE SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT LNL/EGV/ARV MUCH
OF THE DAY. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
RDM/MG