FXUS62 KTAE 301431
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
930 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.UPDATE...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A BUSY UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
MOVES ASHORE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE OVERTOP RIDGING
ALONG MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST STATES. THIS FLOW THEN DIVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERN END OF THIS TROUGH EXTENDS
DOWN INTO THE WESTERN TN VALLEY. OTHER FEATURE THAT NEEDS MENTION IS
THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE SW STATES/NW
MEXICO. EASY TO SEE THAT THIS IS A RATHER ENERGETIC SYSTEM WITH
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE COLD POOL CIRCULATION. THIS
ENERGY WILL BECOME A BIG PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVES EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. CURRENTLY THOUGH...ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE IS EJECTING EASTWARD AROUND THIS CIRCULATION OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF STATES RESULTING IN BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
AT THE SURFACE...1018MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND NEW ORLEANS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND NORTHERN GA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A SOLID BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITHIN
ZONE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND MODEST SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TN
VALLEY SHORTWAVE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THIS BAND WILL BE DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS IT ARRIVES ACROSS THE AREA. STILL A GOOD CHANCE AT A
SHOWER OR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NW HALF OF THE REGION FROM
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THE BAND MAY BECOME MORE BROKEN AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC LIFT SHIFTS
EAST AND WEAKENS. COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
AND WASH OUT OVERNIGHT ENDING THE ANY LINGERING SHOWER THREAT IN THE
SE BIG BEND BY TUESDAY MORNING.
FOCUS BY LATER TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY AS TO THE EXACT
TRACK THIS LOW WILL TAKE AND THE EVENTUAL IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AND COAST FLOOD ISSUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS AFD OR CURRENT HWO FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS KTLH AND KVLD IS CLEARING OUT AT THIS HOUR.
TODAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT OUR
WESTERN TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AS SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASES. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN TERMINALS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD BY LATE EVENING...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE DIMINISHING
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT TO SEE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN A BRIEF ADVISORY LEVEL WIND COULD BE OBSERVED...BUT FOR NOW
WILL FORECAST JUST CAUTIONARY CRITERIA. THE BIG STORY STARTS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LIKELY BUILD THROUGH ADVISORY LEVEL TO
AT LEAST GALE FORCE GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. USED THE LATEST RUN OF THE LOCAL SWAN MODEL TO
ARRIVE AT WAVE HEIGHTS THAT NEAR 18 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...SURF HEIGHTS AT THE COAST COULD BE VERY HIGH...POSSIBLY AS
HIGH AS 11 FEET FROM PANAMA CITY TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF SAINT
GEORGE ISLAND. OF COURSE...RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE EXTREME DURING
THIS TIME AND EVERYONE IS STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE
SURF. IT IS EXPECTED THAT HIGH SURF ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS WILL
BECOME NECESSARY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 73 48 66 59 70 / 20 20 20 60 90
PANAMA CITY 73 50 65 61 71 / 30 20 30 80 90
DOTHAN 72 41 61 56 68 / 50 10 20 80 90
ALBANY 72 41 63 55 66 / 40 10 10 70 90
VALDOSTA 73 47 66 58 73 / 10 20 20 50 90
CROSS CITY 73 54 70 61 74 / 10 20 20 40 90
APALACHICOLA 72 53 65 63 70 / 20 20 30 70 90
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GULF...
JEFFERSON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EST TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO APALACHICOLA OUT TO 60
NAUTICAL MILES.
GALE WATCH FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY
FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO APALACHICOLA OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FROM APALACHICOLA EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE
RIVER ENTRANCE OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
GALE WATCH FROM 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FROM
APALACHICOLA EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE OUT TO
60 NAUTICAL MILES.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
MARINE...GODSEY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
