FXUS62 KMLB 251643
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1142 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009

...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES THANKSGIVING DAY... 

.DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS 
MORNING...ONCE AGAIN DELINEATED BY N-NE WINDS FROM TAMPA TO 
MELBOURNE AND S-SE SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER S FLORIDA. IT IS ALSO 
NOTABLE THAT WIDESPREAD FOG...WITH LOCALIZED DENSE FOG CONTINUES 
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. WIDESPREAD 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS SLOWLY 
LIFTING NORTH FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA 
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS STILL MAINLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AT THIS 
TIME. 

THE SETUP FOR TODAY STILL POINTS TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN EC FL.  
WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND SPEED MAX 
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE GULF...HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SFC 
LOW OFFSHORE EXTREME SW FLORIDA. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE STATE 
BRING PW VALUES AT 1.7" OR ABOVE...WELL ABOVE THE NORM FOR NOVEMBER. 
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AS WELL AS A SFC BOUNDARY TO 
PROVIDE FOCUS...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE FOR 
PERSISTENT/HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON 
ROADWAYS/URBAN FLOODING. 

THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A FEW EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS GIVEN 
THE DYNAMICS ALOFT AND AREA OF (WEAK) ENHANCED SHEAR IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS...ESP NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE MOST LIKELY 
IMPACT FROM THESE WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT A BRIEF 
WATERSPOUT OR FUNNEL CLOUD ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS ESPECIALLY 
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. 

HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MINS THIS 
MORNING...MAINLY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM 
THE MID 70S NORTH/AROUND 80 SOUTH. 

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR/TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH 
DAY NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM KTPA-KTIX. AREAS SOUTH OF THE 
BOUNDARY WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. 
WIDESPREAD +SHRA/SCT TSRA THROUGH OUT THE DAY INCREASING FROM SOUTH 
TO NORTH. 
&&

.MARINE...LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS SHIFTING AS SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS 
BACK OVER THE WATERS FROM N FL. ADDED IN A CAUTIONARY HEADLINE FOR 
LATE IN THE DAY FOR WINDS PICKING UP OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS. WILL 
NEED TO MONITOR IF ANY OF THESE AREAS WILL NEED AN SCA BY LATER 
TODAY/TONIGHT. SHRA/TSRA OVER WATERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH 
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WATERSPOUTS...ESP NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

THU/SUN...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE FL PENINSULA BY THU 
AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG NW AREAWIDE.  WINDS WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE 
NW THU NIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST 
FROM THE SRN PLAINS. ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY 
DAYBREAK FRI...CONTG INTO FRI NIGHT.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON SAT 
AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE...ALLOWING 
WINDS/SEAS TO DIMINISH. . TREND WILL CONT INTO SUN THE RIDGE PUSHES 
OFF THE SERN SEABOARD... ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NE. 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

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