FXUS63 KFGF 022016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
216 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPS. A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
SHEAR AXIS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
PREFERENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR IN
THE WEST AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE IS AN ENHANCED AREA OF
OMEGA IN THE MID LEVELS HERE...AND THIS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION EXPECT MAINLY FLURRIES WITH
PERHAPS EVEN A FEW CLEAR SPOTS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL BUT NOT GET THAT COLD WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND. 

FOR THURSDAY/THU NIGHT...EXPECT CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT WITH PERHAPS AN INCH IN
SOME AREAS. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN HINGE ON CLOUD COVER AND NOT
MUCH DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED. 

FOR FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
BEFORE MOVING AWAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. 

BY SATURDAY...THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT WITH TEMPS GETTING CHILLY
SAT MORNING IF CLEARING CAN MOVE EAST. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER
THE AREA FRI NIGHT THOUGH...SO NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL MOVE IN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE FOR WESTERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM [SAT NIGHT-WED]...
NO DISTINCT SYSTEMS TO LOCK ONTO IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST...IT IS 
POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AT SOME POINT. 
HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SIGNAL WILL HOLD OFF ON 
INCLUDING ANY VERY LOW POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET 
ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL TIER OF THE 
COUNTRY UNTIL LATE. UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS THE COLDER AIR WILL 
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FA. 

&&

.AVIATION...
CHALLENGING TAF FORECASTS TODAY MAINLY DUE TO THE SNOW BAND SLOWLY 
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. VISIBILITIES AT KDVL/KFAR
/KGFK HAVE DROPPED AS LOW AS A MILE AT TIMES. KGFK/KDVL SHOULD SEE 
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEFORE KFAR. BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL 
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO BE AT KDVL BUT FLURRIES COULD CREEP 
INTO ANY OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY REDUCTION TO 
VSBY WITH THE FLURRIES. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE A BIT THINNER NORTH OF 
WINNIPEG DO NOT HOLD OUT MUCH HOPE FOR HIGHER CLOUDS OR BREAKS THRU 
THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
DK/GODON