FXUS64 KMOB 030537
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1125 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009
.UPDATE...BOTH THE WIND ADVISORY AND THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WERE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLIER THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH...WINDS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE DIMINISHED
DRAMATICALLY THIS EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
FCST AREA...BUT MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS. ALSO
ALONG THE COAST...TIDE LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS...BUT
ARE NOW RUNNING ONLY ABOUT ONE HALF TO NEAR ONE FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
VALUES. WE ARE COMING OFF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLE NOW ALONG THE
GULF COAST...SO WITH THIS...NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED UPDATED ZONE FORECAST
PRODUCT...AND HAVE ALSO REFRESHED AND UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK TEXT AND WEB GRAPHICS. 12/DS
&&
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 410 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009 FOLLOWS...
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING]...THE CENTER OF THE
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT IMPACTED THE AREA OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS REACHED KENTUCKY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...WHILE WRAP AROUND STRATUS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND
SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH THE SETTING SUN...SO WIND ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 600 PM. COLDEST TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. LOWER 40S WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
A COOL NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE FROM 52 TO 57 DEGREES...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S NORTH OF I-10 AND THE LOWER 40S SOUTH OF
I-10. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
NOON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH THIS FAST
MOVING LOW WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE
PROFILERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUGGEST THAT
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW FROM 3 AM FRIDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM SATURDAY
MORNING. DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING
BELOW GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. GROUND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT...SO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED UNLESS A VERY NARROW PROLONGED BAND DEVELOPS. /22
.LONG TERM [SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NO CHANGES
NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BE
REPEAT OF THIS LAST STRONG LOW. /22
&&
.MARINE...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME
MORE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING 10 TO 11 FEET OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A LIGHTER OFFSHORE WIND IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
MARINE AREA. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN. 34/JFB
&&
.AVIATION...THE DRY SLOT HAS WORKED INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. A RETURN
TO MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE VERY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. ANY MVFR CIGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING THURSDAY. 34/JFB
&&
.FIRE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...KEEPING A COOL DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH NOON SATURDAY. FORECAST DAYTIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES THURSDAY THOUGH WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
/22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 41 57 38 54 / 05 05 10 10
PENSACOLA 46 57 41 55 / 05 05 10 10
DESTIN 48 58 44 55 / 05 05 10 10
EVERGREEN 40 55 35 53 / 05 05 10 10
WAYNESBORO 38 55 36 52 / 05 00 10 10
CAMDEN 39 55 34 52 / 05 05 10 10
CRESTVIEW 43 59 39 55 / 05 05 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
