FXUS61 KCLE 270900
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
400 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LAST SURFACE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA
THIS MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAST SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO TOWARD NW PA. BEST AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING EASTWARD
WITH THIS TROUGH. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE REMAINED ALL RAIN AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH LIFT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. AT THIS POINT
IN TIME IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEED TO DIP UNDER 36
DEGREES TO BEGIN TO SEE THE RAIN MIX OF SNOW.
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL LIKELY DIP TO THE
MINUS 6 TO MINUS 8 RANGE. AS THIS AIR SLIDES OVER THE WARM LAKE
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME LAKE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. BELIEVE
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SOME DRIZZLE WITH
ONLY OCCASIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAINLY EAST OF I-71 SINCE
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. ANY STEADIER
SNOW WILL ONLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INLAND
ASHTABULA...ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. EVEN THERE IT LOOKS AS IF
THE WARM GROUND WILL LIMIT THE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHICH RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT HOW LONG TO LINGER THE
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER AT TIMES FOR NORTHWESTERN OHIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL INCREASE 0 TO 3 DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAY SEE THE DRIZZLE AND SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED SURFACE RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
CUT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF FAIRLY FAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THIS ONLY LEAVES A FAIRLY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. IF ANY OCCURS IT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
CRAWFORD AND ERIE COUNTIES IN NW PA. BELIEVE AMOUNTS WILL NEVER BE
OVER AN INCH ON THE GROUND.
THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO A QUICK
RETURN OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE
RAIN AS IT ENDS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON SUNDAY BEFORE
COOLING ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST TODAY GIVEN
MODEL UNCERTAINTY DURING THE PERIOD. LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD
QUICKLY END TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF STILL HAVE BIG
DIFFERENCES MOVING LOW NORTH OUT OF THE GULF. THE GFS TAKES THIS
SYSTEM UP THE EAST COAST LEAVING THE AREA DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER BRINGS THE LOW UP WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WARM SO MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN. HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN BETTER LATELY.
TEMPS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT ON TOP OF MFD...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY DAYBREAK. PRECIPITATION IS STILL PREDOMINATELY RAIN...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW BEFORE 09Z. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE IN THE SNOW BELT EAST OF CLEVELAND AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO
MINUS 6C TO MINUS 8C BY 12Z AND LAKE EFFECT BEGINS TO SET UP.
ALTHOUGH CEILINGS RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AND IMPROVE TO VFR FROM THE
WEST TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS ALL RAIN...AND
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODELS STILL
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLDER AIR AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE LAKE BY MIDDAY. WEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PICK
UP. EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE NW DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 25 KNOTS BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LAKE. THE SMALL CRAFT IN PLACE LOOKS
REASONABLE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE FLOW BECOMING SW. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TILL ANOTHER A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. W TO NW FLOW EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT AS WELL. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME SW ON
TUESDAY AS WEAK RIDGING OCCURS FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KUBINA
