FXUS64 KLZK 242136
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
336 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAIN CONTINUED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS DURING THIS EVENT TOPPED 8 INCHES IN
LITTLE ROCK...WHICH WAS ENOUGH TO PUSH TO YEARLY TOTAL TO RECORD
LEVELS. THE OLD RECORD WAS SET IN 1882.
THE POWERFUL STORM REPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN WAS IN WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE...AND WILL HEAD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING.
THE SYSTEM WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S UNTIL IT
EXITS THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN POUR INTO ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT...WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE YIELDING ACCUMULATING SNOW.
FOR NOW...IT APPEARS SNOW IS MOST LIKELY FROM MENA TO MORRILTON
AND BATESVILLE NORTHWARD...OR ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE COMMON...WITH UP TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW TOWARD THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. IN THE LITTLE ROCK
CWA...THIS INCLUDES BOONE...MARION AND NEWTON COUNTIES.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED
FOR THE NORTH/WEST OVERNIGHT.
AS COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE STATE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...AND WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY. SPEEDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 40 MPH. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
ANY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY DAWN CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LEFTOVER FLURRIES TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH FEWER CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...LONG TERM SOLUTION WILL BE BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY AND CONTINUES TO OUT PERFORM THE GFS.
PERIOD INITIATES WITH COLD UPPER VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MAV/MEX NUMBERS GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE FEATURE WILL HELP KEEP COOLER CONDITIONS
IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL TROF WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
AND SPIN UP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SYSTEM WILL HUG THE
GULF COAST AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND TROUGH WILL PIVOT
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF BOTH THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA AND WITH
COLD AIR BEING ESTABLISHED BY THEN...WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. AMOUNTS TO DO APPEAR TO BE OVERLY HIGH AT THIS POINT BUT
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 30 35 25 36 / 60 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 30 43 28 46 / 40 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 23 29 21 31 / 100 20 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 29 39 26 41 / 50 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 30 39 26 40 / 50 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 32 42 29 46 / 40 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 27 39 25 40 / 60 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 26 29 22 31 / 90 20 10 10
NEWPORT AR 31 36 26 37 / 60 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 32 40 28 43 / 40 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 26 36 23 37 / 70 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 31 37 26 38 / 50 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 32 39 28 42 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-
CLEBURNE-DESHA-DREW-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-SHARP-STONE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BAXTER-CONWAY-
FULTON-IZARD-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-SCOTT-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-YELL.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BOONE-JOHNSON-
MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...56
