FXUS65 KABQ 052215
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 PM MST SAT DEC 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED ZONAL FLOW HAS BEEN PREVAILING TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE
HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS NEW MEXICO. SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A MORE VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING INTO THE IDAHO/UTAH/NEVADA VICINITY. MODERATELY BREEZY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED...GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE
WESTERN ZONES. STIFF WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...AND THE CLIPPER WILL
ROTATE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...EMITTING A SHOT OF VORTICITY
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY OVERSHOOTS NEW
MEXICO AND HITS COLORADO...SUFFICIENT OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE IN
PLACE FOR SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS
COLD...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT MAKE MUCH ADVANCEMENT
AFTER TONIGHT...BUT COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT. ALSO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE EAST CENTRAL
TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FOR TONIGHT. ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS SHOWERS GRADUALLY EXPAND
INTO SOME OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY WILL HAVE ROTATED OFF OF THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND WILL HAVE RETROGRADED TOWARD THE WEST COAST BY EARLY
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ENERGY WILL BE PACKAGED AS A 525 DAM LOW OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...SUFFICIENT PVA COUPLED WITH STOUT MID LEVEL
WESTERLIES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED
SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN MILD
DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY IN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD GENERATE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT
MODEL GUIDANCE HASNT YET BIT ON JUST YET...AND MAX TEMPS MAY NEED
TO BE RAISED SOME. MEANWHILE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE
GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW.
DYNAMICS WILL ONLY INCREASE MORE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY COOL AS WELL. TEMPS AT H7
WOULD BE DROPPING TO -10 C IN MUCH OF THE NORTH BY EARLY
TUESDAY...INDICATING HIGH DENDRITIC SNOW RATIOS. HAVE SIDED WITH
HPC QFP GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WERE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY...AND THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS MAY NEED TO INCREASED ON FUTURE SHIFTS. HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN ZONES
RESIDING IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOWFALL AMONG WEST SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY LATE TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO BE MAJOR CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
HIGH WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY CRITERIA POTENTIALLY BEING MET.
A BREAK IN THE ACTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE BROADER
AND LESS ABRUPT SURGES OF MOISTURE ENTER FROM THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
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&&
.AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30KT WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
THROUGH APPROX 00Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF NM AND ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
15Z. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE PECOS VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS AGAIN
TONIGHT...LIKELY AFTER 06Z. ALSO...BY 06Z...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHEAST NM AND SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND AFFECT AREAS FROM KRTN TO KCAO AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR SOUTH AS KTCC.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST NM HAS RESULTED IN WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCALES TO
CLIMB INTO THE 40S...WHICH HAS HELPED TO MELT SOME SNOW.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH...THEY WILL BE REPLACED IN THE NORTHWEST WITH
LOWER CLOUD HEIGHTS AS ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGIN TO FORM BY MORNING. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES...LOWER CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION IS EXPECTED
AREAWIDE AS MIXING AND TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY
BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO BE THE AREA THAT
SHOULD BE IMPACTED THE MOST BY SNOW. MEANWHILE...A 70 TO 80 KT JET
AT 700MB WILL CROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE COMBINATION WILL YIELD VERY
STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 55
MPH NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40. AS EXPECTED...VENTILATION WILL BE
EXCELLENT ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS.
AFTER THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 20 41 24 42 / 5 10 10 40
DULCE........................... 11 33 11 32 / 10 10 20 60
CUBA............................ 11 39 10 36 / 0 5 10 30
GALLUP.......................... 16 42 23 41 / 0 10 10 40
EL MORRO........................ 12 41 15 42 / 0 20 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 12 46 20 45 / 0 10 5 20
QUEMADO......................... 14 48 17 47 / 0 10 5 20
GLENWOOD........................ 19 51 22 53 / 0 5 5 20
CHAMA........................... 5 27 6 28 / 10 20 30 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 12 40 14 36 / 0 5 5 20
PECOS........................... 9 34 7 35 / 0 5 5 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... -2 31 6 32 / 5 10 10 30
RED RIVER....................... 3 23 4 26 / 5 10 10 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 2 26 3 30 / 5 10 10 20
TAOS............................ 5 35 10 35 / 0 5 10 30
ESPANOLA........................ 11 45 15 42 / 0 5 5 20
SANTA FE........................ 14 37 16 36 / 0 5 5 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 16 38 19 37 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 23 44 25 45 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 25 45 27 46 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 18 47 21 48 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 20 45 22 46 / 0 0 5 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 17 51 18 50 / 0 0 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 21 46 24 45 / 0 0 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 20 54 22 50 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 15 41 14 42 / 0 5 5 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 14 40 15 42 / 0 0 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 17 37 19 36 / 0 0 5 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 23 44 26 43 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 24 48 25 46 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 20 46 21 44 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 12 30 12 30 / 5 5 10 10
RATON........................... 12 30 13 33 / 0 10 10 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 16 36 17 36 / 0 5 5 10
CLAYTON......................... 18 30 14 30 / 0 5 5 10
ROY............................. 17 37 14 31 / 0 5 5 10
CONCHAS......................... 18 42 17 38 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 19 47 18 42 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 20 41 18 38 / 0 0 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 26 45 22 42 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 23 46 20 44 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 22 46 19 45 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 23 49 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 26 49 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 28 47 29 50 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502>506-508-510>517.
&&
$$
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