FXUS61 KCLE 021507
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1007 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL ROSS EASTERN
OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
ON THURSDAY. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE LOW
AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BUT THE WIND DIRECTION MAY NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DENSE PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A FEW
THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES AWAY BUT I CAN
ALREADY SEE VIRGA OUT THE WINDOW (10 AM) SO CLOUDS ARE HERE TO
STAY. RAIN SHIELD MOVING NORTH AT ABOUT 30 MPH. RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE
NEAR THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE
CLEVELAND AREA IN TIME FOR RUSH HOUR AND SOON AFTER AT TOLEDO AND
PROBABLY HOLDING OFF AT ERIE UNTIL VERY EARLY EVENING. TRIMMED BACK
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
THE LACK OF DECENT WARMING SOUTH WIND. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT MOVING
TO NEAR THE CLEVELAND AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN TO
AROUND THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
QUICK SPEED OF THE LOW SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS DOWN BUT STILL
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF INCH POSSIBLE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.
RAIN SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TOWARD
MORNING AND WOULD ONLY EXPECT FAR WESTERN AREAS TO POSSIBLY SEE A
MIX OR CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING. PRECIP
GRADUALLY CHANGES OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...TAKING UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EAST. MODELS SHOWING RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE
TOMORROW AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE PROBLEM
TOMORROW AND WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS MENTIONED. HOW SIGNIFICANT ANY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. 925H TO 8H FLOW
SHOULD BE WSW TO W AND APPEARS FAVORABLE THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS SEEM TO LACK DEEP MOISTURE AND ARE ALSO SHOWING AN
INVERSION AROUND 800MB. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WOULD STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THE FLOW
WILL LIKELY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY BUT WITH ANY WEAK
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH COULD PUSH THE WINDS BACK TO A FAVORABLE
FLOW. SO AREAS CLOSEST TO LAKESHORE...MAINLY ASHTABULA AND ERIE
COUNTY APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD END THE THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE AREA MOVES EAST SUNDAY 
ALLOWING A LITTLE BIT OF A WARM UP.   BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE A LOW 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON MONDAY...ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT GFS HAS 
A WEAKER SECONDARY LOW OVER OHIO.  LEANED TOWARD THE SINGLE LOW 
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF.  MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS 
HAS A SECOND LOW MOVING ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH A SURGE OF WARM AIR.  
THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS THE LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE EAST  
KEEPING THE AREA IN COLDER AIRMASS.  DO NOT WANT TO FLIP FLOP 
TUESDAY FORECAST WITH MODELS IN SUCH DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NE OH THIS EVENING AND REACH LAKE ONTARIO BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW. THAT SAID...EXPECT RAIN NOW INTO CENTRAL KY TO REACH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOW TO NEAR CAK BY
MIDNIGHT LOCAL. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE RAIN...AND IFR/LIFR
NEAR THE LOW ITSELF. CONDITIONS WILL ACTUALLY BE IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY THIS TIME TOMORROW IF LOW MOVES AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES
OVER THE AREA. BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY GET A DUSTING AS MUCH
DRIER AIR PUSHES IN QUICKLY. BEST LOCATION FOR SNOW WILL BE THE
SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND.

.OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT
THE KERI TERMINAL THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS DEPENDING ON THE EVER CRITICAL WIND DIRECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT STORM 
SYSTEM.  MODELS TRACK LOW ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND INTO CENTRAL NEW 
YORK STATE TONIGHT...AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING.  THE 
LOW IS NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS RUNS AND SO THE WINDS NOT QUITE 
AS STRONG AS YDY.  THAT SAID WILL KEEP WINDS AT 30 KNOTS FOR 
THURSDAY...BUT GALES ARE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  SINCE THE 
MODEL TRACK IS FURTHER WEST THE COLDEST AIR DOES NOT MOVE OVER THE 
LAKE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING 
TO -10C TO -11 C BY 12Z FRIDAY.  BY THAT TIME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO 
MOVE OVER THE LAKE SO NOT AS BIG A SNOW EVENT AS LOOKED LIKE A 
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.  FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN 
LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB