FXUS64 KMEG 251729
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1129 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A PLEASANT DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 60
DEGREES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS HAD TO
BUMP UP MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
AC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE MID SOUTH AND WILL
KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
HELP TO SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
LIMITED MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAIN
CHANCES BUT THERE LIKELY WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND
THIS SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH AN EVEN COOLER AIRMASS. DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEK. IN
FACT...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY
FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MID SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES EAST AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CURRENTLY DISAGREE WITH THE PHASING OF THE TWO
JET STREAM DISTURBANCES AND THIS RESULTS IN DIFFERENCES MAINLY IN
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM. THE LATEST
00Z GFS IS MORE PHASED...SLOWER...AND STRONGER WITH THE
SYSTEM...WHERE AS THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE TWO SHORTWAVES
UNPHASED...RESULTING IN A WEAKER...FASTER SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
WILL MAINTAIN POPS DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME
UNTIL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP IMPROVED CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE MID SOUTH.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BE
WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AT
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 60 40 53 35 / 0 0 10 0
MKL 58 37 49 30 / 0 0 10 0
JBR 59 37 50 30 / 0 0 10 0
TUP 62 38 55 32 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
