FXUS63 KPAH 221935
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
135 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP WAA TO SET UP TONIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING RAINS COMING IN LATE
TONIGHT ESP ALONG/WEST OF MS RIVER. ELEVATED STABILITY PARAMETERS
SUGGEST STRONG UPGLIDE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION OF THUNDER IN SEMO OZARKS BY 12Z WED...SO INCLUDED ITS
MENTION FAR WRN PTNS SEMO LATE TONIGHT. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
SPREAD EAST AND POPS SPIKE FIRST W/WARM FROPA WED...THEN AS UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES WED NIGHT-THU. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CHANCES MAINLY WED NIGHT-THU.
ALSO GRADIENT WINDS WILL ENHANCE WITH APPROACH OF
EVOLVING/DEVELOPING SYSTEM...AND POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL WINDS. MOS
WINDS 15-30 MPH SUSTAINED AND BUFKIT SOUNDING PRODUCED GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH (ADVISORY CRITERIIA) ARE POSSIBLE ESP FROM LATE
WED-THU-EARLY FRI. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT ALL THESE PARAMETERS IN
HWO/HIGHLIGHT PRODUCTS WHERE APPROPRIATE. 12Z FFG VALUES SUGGEST
OUR GROUNDS WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THE 2-3" FORECAST QPF FROM
LATE TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY SO WILL HOLD OFF ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW.
LOOK FOR BEST QPF OVER SEMO...WHICH WILL SEE BEST TOTALS FROM 1ST
BOUT TONIGHT-EARLY TOMORROW. 

ELEVATED THUNDER THREAT AND OCCLUSION OF SYSTEM PROBABLY PRECLUDES
OUR AREA FROM HIGHER SVR RISK...HENCE SWODY OUTLOOKS OF SVR MAINLY
TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER POWERFUL WIND FIELDS WARRANT CONTINUE CLOSE
MONITOR OF SYSTEM EVOLUTION/SVR THREAT IN CASE HEIGHTENED MENTION
BECOMES NECESSARY.

AFT FRONTALLY BANDED PCPN DEPARTS THU WE BECOME PRIMARILY BACK
SIDE OF LOW DOMINATED IN OUR WX AND AS SUCH SPRINKLES CHANGING TO
FLURRIES WILL BE MAIN MENTIONABLES OF PCPN FROM THU NIGHT
INTO/THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 12Z MODEL TRACKS OF THE
LOW SUGGEST BEST MRH FIELDS FROM WRAP AROUND WILL STAY GENERALLY
NORTH OF OUR AREA AND AS SUCH WILL HAVE LTL/NO SUCH MENTION...SAT
NIGHT PERHAPS WARRANTING OUR MAIN CHC FLURRIES AT LEAST AS OF THIS
WRITING...THE BEST CHANCE WRAP AROUND TIMING SEEMINGLY CHANGING
EACH MODEL RUN.

WARM TEMPS PRE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN ON STRONG WINDS AND THEN BE
SLOW TO TRANSITION BACK TO COOLER THAN NORMS TIL UPPER LOW LIFTS
OUT OF MS VALLEY LATER THIS WEEKEND. BLENDED NEW GUIDANCE W/COLLAB
PIC FOR BEST THERMAL FORECAST LOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. BAND
OF SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COULD IMPACT KCGI WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT KEPT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW IMPACT. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL ESCALATE OVER WESTERN TERMINALS
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IMPACTING KCGI AND
KPAH. KEVV AND KOWB SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SE 5-10 KTS. 

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$