FXUS62 KCAE 271916
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
216 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE AREA. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT. THE IN-HOUSE RADIATION SCHEME SUPPORTS
LOWS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MAV AND MET MOS. THE FREEZE
WARNING APPEARS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DRY RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. USED THE COLDER LOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SUPPORTS SHOWERS BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL DRYNESS AND LACK OF STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS.
THE MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLAN TO FORECAST
LIKELY POPS BECAUSE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION. WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. FOG SHOULD
NOT BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
BY LATE MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ015-
016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JL
NEAR TERM...JL
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...31
