FXUS63 KMKX 270921
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWING LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
WISCONSIN IS BREAKING UP...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES HEADS EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS MATCHES
FAIRLY WELL WITH MODEL LOW LEVEL RH...WHICH SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND IN THE EAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE THROUGH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CIRRUS STREAMING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODEL 925 TEMPS SUGGEST A
SEASONABLY COOL DAY TO END THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST FOR SATURDAY...AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE STATE. WITH LITTLE LIFT AND VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
THOUGH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL
PULL UP A MILDER AIRMASS DURING THE DAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS
SUGGESTING THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA COULD GET BACK TO 50.
SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ONLY CONCERN FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. MODELS SOUNDING SHOWING GOOD
SATURATION FOR A SHORT TIME...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH UPPER
DYNAMICS TO KICK OFF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. TRIMMED THE POPS
BACK TO LEAVE JUST ACROSS THE NORTH HALF TOWARD THE UPPER LOW.
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW
MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING SRN WISCONSIN DRY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THROUGH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS HAS A TROUGHING
PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW TO WEAK UPPER RIDGE. WITH THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND HPC GOING THAT ROUTE
TOO...TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF. WITH MODELS ALL
KEEPING THINGS DRY...MAIN OUTCOME OF THIS WAS TO KEEP A MILDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW...AS OPPOSED TO THE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO
ALL VFR AND SCATTERED FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON MOVES OFF AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
WEAK TROF PUSHES INTO MN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIMITED
MOISTURE...SO NO STRATUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 16Z FRIDAY. GOOD MIXING IN THE LOW
LEVELS WITH COLD NORTHWEST WINDS OVER WARMER WATERS. WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING A FEW 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
12Z...THEN IT TAKE A BIT TO SETTLE WAVES AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH
APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE.
RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS WEAK TROF PUSHES INTO MN
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...DDV/07
AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ/06
