FXUS65 KBOI 081021
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
320 AM MST TUE DEC 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT THE BOISE AIRPORT...THE 
LOW SO FAR FOR THE DAY IS -2...WHICH IS NOWHERE NEAR THE RECORD OF 
-19...BUT IT EQUALS THE MIN TEMP SET ON DECEMBER 21 1998. THE NEXT 
COLDEST TEMP IS -4 MEASURED BACK ON JANUARY 2 1991. WE COULD VERY 
WELL GET THERE BEFORE SUNRISE...IF THE FOG/STRATUS HOLDS OFF UNTIL 
THEN. SOME SHALLOW FOG/STRATUS WAS OBSERVED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF 
THE AIRPORT...AND COULD EXPAND AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. WILL ADD 
PATCHY FOG FOR THIS MORNING BETWEEN CALDWELL AND MOUNTAIN HOME. SNOW 
FLURRIES WERE FINALLY WINDING DOWN IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS 
THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW WAS MOVING EAST OF THE 
REGION. A MOSTLY DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL 
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT 
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR MOST AREAS 
WITH MORE CLOUDS ANTICIPATED MOVING DOWN OUT OF WESTERN CANADA. NOT 
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS IN THE SW 
IDAHO MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE FROM 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA 
WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD AIR AND DYNAMICS MOVING 
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY.  KEPT THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES 
WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT AS MENTION BY 
PREVIOUS SHIFT NOT AS FAST DUE TO SNOW ON THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IN 
THE TREASURE VALLEY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS 
CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND 
HOW FAR NORTH THIS MOISTURE WILL LIFT.  WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF 
INCREASING POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ABOVE CLIMO POPS FOR 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG UNTIL 
19Z.  VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MAGIC VALLEY THIS MORNING 
WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SURFACE AND 
ALOFT.

TONIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOCAL FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER 
THE FRESH SNOW PACK IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA