FXUS61 KBTV 011521
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1021 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AFTER A PLEASANT AND SEASONABLE
DAY WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...BRINGING RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1021 AM EST TUESDAY...WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE TO GOING FOR
TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING WORDING AND TO ADJUST FORECASTED
HIGHS BASED ON EXPECTED CLD COVER FROM WK TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE
CWA. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS IN GD ATTM. WSW/SSW WIND FLOW OFF OF
LK ONTARIO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PLUME OF LK EFFECT PRECIP. TEMPS
IN L30S/U20S FOR N NY ALLOWING FOR LGT -SW TO FALL. BREAKUP OF SW
ST LAW AND THE DACKS LOOKS FAVORABLE TO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LGT
ACCUM THRU TDY. SOME BREAKS IN CLD COVER W/ SSW WINDS MAY ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO GO UP TDY TO SUPPORT -RW TO MIX INTO PRECIP...
ESPECIALLY IN VT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MAIN FCST PROBLEM FOR TDY IS POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BAND TO AFFECT PARTS OF NRN NY. SFC RIDGE MOVG
ACRS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER...BUT STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS THE RGN. AS
THE RIDGE DEPARTS...EXPECT LLVL FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TDY. THE RESULT WILL BE A CHC OF SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CRS NRN NY DUE FAVORABLE LLVL FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS SRN PORTIONS OF ST LWR AND FRANKLIN CTYS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE RGN...A CHC OF SNOW SHWRS ACRS NC/NE VT (MAINLY THIS PM)...AND
JUST SLITE CHC SNOW/RAIN SHWRS IN THE CHMPLN AND CT TVR VLYS.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TDY TO BE IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EST TUESDAY...UPR TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. RIDGING BOTH AT SFC AND ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
LATER TONIGHT THRU MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO AROUND 30...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE 40S
AS 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +4 C.
WX CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO BE OVER LOWER OHIO VLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WED NITE AS IT MOVES NNE INTO FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN LIFTS INTO SERN QUEBEC/NRN MAINE
THURS PM. MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT THEY
ALL REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH INLAND SO THAT
THIS WILL BE MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
RAIN TO OVERSPREAD FA FROM SW TO NE WED NITE. IT MAY BEGIN AS A
MIX IN NORTHEAST VERMONT. BUT AS WARMER AIR STREAMS IN AT ALL
LEVELS ANY MIX SHUD BE BRIEF. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR GOOD INFLUX OF MSTR INTO THE NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPS. PW'S CLIMB TO AROUND AN INCH...AND 850 MB TEMPS APRCH +10
C AROUND 12Z THURS. EXPECT MIN TEMPS WED NITE TO BE REACHED EARLY
AT NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS FALLING INTO THE 30S...BUT TEMPS WILL
THEN RISE OVRNGHT. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE PERIOD OF
STRONG WAA WED NITE/EARLY THURS. RAIN WILL THEN TAPER TO SHWRS BY
THURS PM. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS ACRS THE AREA OF AROUND AN INCH
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR AMOUNTS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
MODERATE RISES ON AREA RIVERS.
OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY
WINDS... THOUGH STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF FALLING PCPN AND CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ABOVE INVERSION HEIGHT SHUD LIMIT THE HIGH
WIND POTENTIAL. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WNDS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE GREENS AND OVER THE HIR ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENS AND ADRNDKS
LATER WED NITE...WITH MORE WDSPRD BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THURS AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE RGN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 AM EST TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS
FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST FRI AND FRI PM. UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY...AND A ROBUST LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...PASSING
OUTSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH CENTER OF
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS...PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE MUCH FROM THIS
SYSTEM IF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HOLDS TRUE. THEN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENTLY CIGS ARE GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH
MVFR AT KMPV. A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY... IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS MORNING AT KMSS AND KSLK WITH A CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS...AND VFR SPRINKLES NEAR KBTV AND KPBG MID TO LATE
MORNING...THOUGH MOST LIKELY IN THE CPV WE WILL JUST SEE VIRGA.
AFTER 15Z KSLK COULD SEE SOME MVFR -SHSN FROM THE TAIL END OF SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO
IMPACT KRUT AND EVEN KMPV IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
AND FROM THE SSW BY MORNING. MTNS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS IN
THE DACKS AFTER 14Z AND POSSIBLY IN THE GREENS AFTER 18Z. CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISBYS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED THRU 00Z THU...VFR.
00Z THU THRU 00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS/LLWS
POSSIBLE.
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY
NRN MTNS.
00Z SAT THRU 00Z SUN...VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BTV REMAINS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE
RECORD LATEST DATE IS WITHIN SIGHT.
FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW HAPPENS
NOVEMBER 6TH. HERE ARE THE 10 LATEST FIRST SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON
GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOW THAT
FOLLOWED.
SEASON TOTAL
RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES)
1. 12/7/1937 45.1
2. 12/5/1915 54.4
3. 12/1/1948 40.7
4. 11/30/1918 69.6
11/30/1953 83.6
11/30/1960 51.6
7. 11/28/1913 56.5
8. 11/27/1941 57.7
9. 11/26/1982 80.5
10. 11/25/1957 94.9
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/JN
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...
