FXUS61 KBOX 290332
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1032 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY AND CHILLY
WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM BRINGING MAINLY RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NAM/GFS LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS DOING A GOOD JOB PICKING UP ON THE AREA
OF SC MOVING INTO W ZONES AND SUGGEST PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT IN THE DISTANT INTERIOR. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE ORH VCNTY EWD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES AND
LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD 12Z...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
MONADNOCKS TO NORTHERN BERKS.
STILL GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUN...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SNE. OTHER THAN SOME MORNING
CLOUDINESS FAR NW...EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SW
FLOW INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST.
SUN NIGHT...IC AHEAD OF NEXT CF AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS NW MASS TWD DAWN
MONDAY. CONTINUITY WITH PREV 4AM SUNDAY KBOX POPS INSTEAD OF THE NEARLY
DOUBLE 09Z SREF POPS WHICH LOOK TOO HIGH FOR THIS PREFRONTAL R THREAT.
WE APPLIED 18Z HPC QPF TO ASSIST IN THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH.
15Z SREF POPS AND 18Z NAM SUGGEST WE COULD RAISE POPS 10 PCT NW FRINGE
LATE SUN NIGHT. LOOKS TO ME LIKE MID LVL SPRINKLES SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPS RISING TWD DAWN MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF
RAIN...FEEL THAT THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND DYNAMICS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION TO SEE SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...WILL
RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS LIQUID
EVEN ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE DISTANT INTERIOR.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. ITS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS ACROSS RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA TOUCH
60. MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
TUESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BLUSTERY AND CHILLY DAY LOOKS TO BE ON TAP
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C...SHOULD HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IN
FACT...PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN MAY NOT REACH 40.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY CONSIDERING OUR
RECENT WEATHER. SHOULD GENERALLY BE A DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DISTANT INTERIOR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH LOWER 30S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RECOVER
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE A BIT MILDER THAN
TUESDAY WITH LESS WIND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY..
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SPAWN A PRETTY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS IS STILL A LONG WAY OUT...BUT THERE IS
CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT
THE REGION SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MODEL
TRACK AND TIMING ARE OF COURSE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THOUGH TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO UPGRADE
TO LIKELY POPS...BUT ITS STILL NEARLY 5 DAYS OUT SO DID NOT WANT TO
JUMP THE GUN AT THIS POINT. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY A RAIN AT
THIS POINT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW ACROSS
THE INTERIOR IF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP TAKING AN EASTERN MOST
ROUTE...BUT ODDS FAVOR MOST OF THE EVENT FALLING AS RAIN. IN
ADDITION...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK A PERIOD OF WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR. A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 3 THOUSAND FEET NW HIGHER TERRAIN...ALONG AND
W OF BAF-ORE. DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 22 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FMH-HYA-
ACK.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ORH WESTWARD.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A RAIN
STORM.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT STILL GETTING GALE
FORCE WINDS IN SOME SPOTS. HAVE DOWNGRADED THE GALES FROM CAPE COD
BAY NORTHWARD AND BID SOUND BUT EXTENDED THE GALES FOR EASTERN WATERS
ADJACENT TO ACK UNTIL 08Z AS WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 35-40 KT. GALES
FOR REST OF SOUTH COASTAL WATERS EXPIRE AT 06Z.
SUN...SCA WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING...STRONGEST EASTERN WATERS.
THEN WINDS BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING BUT MAY
STILL HAVE G NEAR 25 KT IN THE SW FLOW OVER S COASTAL WATERS. SCA
SEAS OUTER WATERS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT CONTINUE SRN WATERS ALL DAY.
SUN NIGHT... SCA SEAS SRN WATERS. INCREASING SW WIND LATE.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SCA ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF OUR
WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS A
RESULT OF EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN. IN
ADDITION...SCA FOR SEAS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME ACROSS OUR
OUTER-WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA FOR A TIME AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO MOST OF OUR WATERS. IN ADDITION...HIGH SEAS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE OUTER-WATERS. HOWEVER...WIND DIRECTION REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AS THE MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE TRACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT HAS NOT FALLEN
TO THE FREEZING MARK SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE LATEST IN THE SEASON
THAT BOSTON HAS GONE WITHOUT HITTING 32F WAS DEC 2ND 1975. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE BREAK THAT RECORD...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.
CURRENTLY...WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 35 DEGREES ON TUESDAY MORNING
DECEMBER 1ST. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
DECEMBER 2ND WHEN THE EXPECTED LOW IS 32 DEGREES...WHICH IF IT IS
DELAYED TIL THEN WOULD APPEAR TO TIE THE LATEST FALL OCCURRENCE OF
32F...ESTABLISHED IN 1975 AT LOGAN AIRPORT. AVERAGE FIRST DATE OF 32
IN BOSTON IS AROUND NOVEMBER 4TH. HAYDEN POINTED OUT THAT DESPITE
THE POTENTIAL LATEST OCCURRING FREEZING TEMP AT BOSTON... WE DID
ESTABLISH THE 3RD EARLIEST MINOR SNOWFALL AT LOGAN AIRPORT THIS FALL
ON OCTOBER 18TH.
NOVEMBER HEADING FOR TOP 10 WARMEST...
STATUS THRU 11/27
BOS 49.0 PLUS 3.6 RANKED NUMBER 5 2006 WAS 4TH WARMEST
BDL 46.5 PLUS 4.1 RANKED NUMBER 5 2006 WAS 4TH WARMEST
PVD 49.1 PLUS 4.8 RANKED NUMBER AND THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3 OR 4
FINISH. 2006 2ND WARMEST.
ORH 44.9 PLUS 4.7 RANKED NUMBER 4 2006 WAS WARMEST EVER NOV
THERE ARE NO PROJECTIONS AS TO FINAL OUTCOME BUT A RANKING IN THE TOP
10 WARMEST APPEARS ASSURED FOR MOST OF THESE 100 PLUS YEAR LOCATIONS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ232-254-255.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/DRAG/FRANK
CLIMATE...
