FXUS61 KGYX 030738
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STRONG AREA OF OVER-RUNNING CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH RAIN FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 2AM. LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK BY DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MAINE TODAY. STILL LOOKING LIKE A QUICK HITTER WITH BEST
LIFT QUICKLY PUSHING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY NOON. WESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD TAKE QUITE A JUMP AS MIXING GETS
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF BREAKING TEMP RECORDS IN
PORTLAND MAINE AND CONCORD NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE READING SHOULD GET
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FARTHER NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WILL BE CONTINUING WIND ADVISORIES FOR COASTAL SECTIONS ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS ANY IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR AT THIS TIME. MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WEST WINDS AND CLOUDS
IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS ENOUGH INT HE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING THAT ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE PATTERN IS ADJUSTING WITH A COLDER PATTERN SETTING UP
FOR THE FCST AREA THRU THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPR LVL TROF IS
STILL POSITIONED TO OUR W ON FRIDAY SO COLD AIR IS SLOW TO FILTER
IN ON WESTERLY SFC FLOW. SFC LOW MOVES NE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFF THE COAST ON THE ADVANCING EDGE OF THE UPR LVL CUTOFF. UPR LVL
CUTOFF OPENS UP ON SATURDAY AND A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES TO THE E
WHICH SUPPORTS THE SFC LOW MOVING TO THE NE AS IT
INTENSIFIES...BUT TRACKS IT TOO FAR TO THE E...JUST BEYOND THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRCP IN THE FCST AREA. SYSTEM MOVES
BY SATURDAY NGT WITH BEST CHC FOR LGT PRCP...IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...THOUGH WON'T GO HIGHER THAN CHC POP AT THIS TIME AS STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC FEATURE... THOUGH MOST
TRENDS HAVE IT STAYING TOO FAR TO OUR E TO BRING IN MUCH IF ANY
PRCP.
ONCE THIS LOW GOES BY HIGH PRES AND COLDER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. THEN ANOTHER LOW MOVES NE TOWARD THE REGION ON MONDAY IN
RESPONSE TO UPR LVL TROF LIFTING NE. COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR SOME -SN
OR -SHSN BUT MAY SEE ENOUGH WRM AIR INTRUDE TO CREATE SOME LGT MIXED
PRCP. A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW MOVES NE TOWARD THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER CHC FOR PRCP AND HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF.
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BUT WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE TO START SHOULD
SEE SN OR MIXED PRCP BEFORE A CHANGE OVER OCCURS.
GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY THEN USED GMOS FOR REST OF LONG TERM
FCST WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO
VFR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...COASTAL LOW MOVES BY LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NGT WITH SOME -SN PSBL ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE HIGHEST CHC NEAR THE COAST. THIS COULD LWR CIG
AND VSBY TO MVFR...OR LWR IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
BUT IF THE LOW STAYS FURTHER OUT TO SEA THEN NO PRCP WILL FALL
OVER THE FCST AREA AND CIG AND VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR. STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MAY BRING
SOME LGT MIXED PRCP WITH MVFR OR PSBL IFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SEAS DROP BLO SCA LEVELS WITH
WINDS ALREADY BLO SCA LEVELS AS LOW MOVES AWAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS
PICK UP TO SCA LEVELS SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY AS SEAS COME CLOSE
TO SCA LEVELS. OTRW WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BLO SCA LEVELS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CONTINUING COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. WILL BE ISSUING COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MID COAST MAINE FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT SOME SPLASH OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 AM.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE MONTHLY CLIMATE SUMMARIES FOR NOVEMBER HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTLAND /PWMCLMPWM/, GRAY /PWMCLMGYX/ AND CONCORD /PWMCLMCON/. THEY
ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023>028.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TODAY FOR MEZ025>028.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TODAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TODAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
