FXUS65 KABQ 230446
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
946 PM MST TUE DEC 22 2009
.UPDATE...WILL MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO THE WSW PACKAGE THIS
EVENING...BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL INCLUDE
NMZ522 AND NMZ523 TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 10 PM
AND RUNNING THROUGH 5 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AM EXPECTING
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE ZONES...BUT TRAVEL
IMPACT WILL BE OF CONCERN GIVEN WINDS AND
VISIBILITIES...PARTICULARLY NEAR CLINES CORNERS. WILL ALSO EXTEND
THE ADVISORY SEGMENT FOR THE SANTA FE
METRO...SANDIA/MANZANOS...AND THE SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MTS UNTIL 5
PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD MATCH UP NICELY WITH OTHER
SEGMENTS. WILL NOT MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST ELEMENTS AT
THE MOMENT...BUT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE COME IN WITH SOLUTIONS
FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER. UPCOMING SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SLOWDOWN.
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&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MST TUE DEC 22 2009...
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH
INTO NEVADA AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT AND
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG 500-300MB JET
CONTINUES TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND IS HELPING TO EXPAND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS FOR INCREASING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN REMAIN ON TRACK.
WE WILL EXPAND ADVISORY COVERAGE IN A NEW WSW WHICH WILL BE ISSUED
AT 4 PM MST. THE NEW SEGMENT WILL NOW INCLUDE ZONE 518 /SANTA
FE/..ZONE 521 /SANDIA MANZANO MOUNTAINS/ AND ZONE 526 /RUIDOSO/.
THE ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AT 00Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION HERE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AND WE SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WHERE BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME A CONCERN IN RUIDOSO.
FURTHER EAST...WILL HOLD ON TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS FOR AT LEAST THE INITIAL PHASE OF
THIS EVENT WHICH WILL BE THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE SYSTEM COULD SLOW
DOWN AND WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SURGE DUE INTO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW...COULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE WHICH MAY
LINGER SNOWS OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY THE EVENING AND MIDNIGHT SHIFTS. AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
AND ALONG INTERSTATE 25 TO THE COLORADO BORDER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW. THE MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR HERE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS LATER WEDNESDAY. FAVORABLE DEFORMATION ZONE HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN RELEGATED BY THE NAM-WRF THE PAST FEW RUNS AND
WE FEEL THAT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS.
MODELS HAVE ALSO LATCHED ONTO A CONTINUATION OF SNOW MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.
THINGS WILL FINALLY IMPROVE BY FRIDAY BUT A COLD AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTH. SUB ZERO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING
WITH TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS AND A
GRADUALLY MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ENCROACHES ON THE
REGION BY LATE NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
KW
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST THE REST OF TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE FOR SOME TERMINAL SITES WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN THE NEAR TERM...CIGS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE ALREADY
STARTED AT BOTH GUP AND FMN. PRECIPITATION AND LOWERING CIGS WILL
EVENTUALLY AFFECT BOTH SAF AND ABQ LATER THIS EVENING. ESPECIALLY
WITH A VIGOROUS WIND SHIFT AND INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS FOR A HOUR OR SO WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KT AND SOME
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WIND SHIFT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MANY OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TERMINAL
SITES AND SOME LONGER DURATION MVFR CONDITIONS. GUP AND SAF HAVE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF A LONGER DURATION MVFR EVENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LVS WILL SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
THAT WAY ON WEDNESDAY. TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS TCC AND ROW STAND TO
SEE THE LEAST AFFECT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH TCC WILL SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER WEDNESDAY DUE TO A SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL IMPACT AIRPORT RUNWAYS AND
AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING COULD BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT FOR ABQ.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z.
.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...VIGOROUS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO
PROVIDE WETTING PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW MOST
ELEVATIONS...TO THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION ALREADY STARTING
ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD UPPER
LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DO THE BEST...AS
FAR AS...ACCUMULATING SNOW. NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS STAND
TO SEE THE LONGEST DURATION OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE ORIENTATION
OF THE UPPER LOW AND SUBSEQUENT PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INITIALLY BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...ORIGINATING
FROM THE YUKON...WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL FEEL BRISK WITH THIS SECONDARY COLD
PUSH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE RESIDUAL COOLER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE OUT OVER THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY. ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER
ONE 3 TO 4 DAYS FOLLOWING THAT.
VERY LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE SECONDARY COLD PUSH
ON THURSDAY BUT DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE FOR MOST AREAS. SUSPECT THAT SOME AREAS
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS...MOST LIKELY SOUTHWEST AREAS...DUE TO THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS FORECASTED AT THE MID LEVELS AND AS TEMPERATURES
WARM SOME OVER THE WEEKEND BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...
FARMINGTON...................... 26 37 19 33 / 80 60 10 0
DULCE........................... 20 33 10 29 / 80 70 30 10
CUBA............................ 21 32 13 29 / 70 60 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 23 34 10 31 / 80 50 10 0
EL MORRO........................ 19 32 11 29 / 90 40 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 22 34 12 33 / 80 50 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 21 34 12 34 / 80 30 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 32 45 20 46 / 90 20 0 0
CHAMA........................... 17 33 8 29 / 80 70 30 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 22 34 13 29 / 70 50 20 20
PECOS........................... 22 35 14 31 / 60 50 20 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 17 32 9 28 / 60 60 30 30
RED RIVER....................... 16 27 8 24 / 80 70 40 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 16 28 10 25 / 70 70 40 30
TAOS............................ 20 33 13 29 / 60 60 30 30
ESPANOLA........................ 24 41 19 36 / 60 50 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 22 33 17 30 / 60 50 20 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 26 35 19 32 / 60 60 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 29 38 23 38 / 60 40 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 31 40 25 40 / 60 40 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 29 41 22 42 / 60 40 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 30 40 24 41 / 60 40 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 27 44 20 44 / 60 40 10 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 29 39 24 39 / 60 40 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 32 47 23 45 / 60 30 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 25 35 17 32 / 70 50 10 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 24 36 18 33 / 60 50 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 24 32 16 30 / 50 50 20 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 29 36 20 39 / 50 40 5 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 30 41 23 41 / 40 30 5 10
RUIDOSO......................... 30 37 20 37 / 70 40 10 5
CAPULIN......................... 20 30 10 25 / 60 80 60 20
RATON........................... 24 33 14 28 / 50 70 60 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 24 33 14 28 / 40 50 30 30
CLAYTON......................... 23 30 18 28 / 40 70 60 20
ROY............................. 26 34 18 31 / 30 60 60 20
CONCHAS......................... 30 40 22 37 / 30 50 50 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 31 42 21 38 / 30 50 20 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 28 39 19 35 / 20 50 50 20
CLOVIS.......................... 30 46 22 38 / 20 40 30 20
PORTALES........................ 30 47 21 39 / 20 30 30 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 31 45 22 40 / 20 40 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 36 53 26 45 / 20 30 10 20
PICACHO......................... 33 48 24 46 / 30 30 10 20
ELK............................. 31 44 21 44 / 30 30 10 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ527>532.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501-502-505>507-509-518-521-526.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503-504-508-510-511.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>517.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ522-523.
&&
$$
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