FXUS62 KCAE 092037
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
337 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
MORE RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE PIEDMONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. DRY AIR MASS WILL CLEAR CLOUDS. STILL EXPECT WINDS
GUSTY WINDS TO DIMINISH THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ACROSS AS
TROUGHINESS LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN TIER
STATES. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
A BIT IN SPITE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRY AIR MASS. WENT WITH
CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
THURSDAY BUILDS EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY. DRY AIR MASS WILL MAKE
FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 50S. LIGHT WIND AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATING
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST AND RE-DEVELOPS
OFF THE SC COAST SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET AND COOL WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. WITH THE DELAY OF MOISTURE
UNTIL SATURDAY...ANY CHANCE FOR SLEET APPEARS VERY SMALL. 

GFS/ECMWF NOT YET IN AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOTH INDICATING
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE PERIOD BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS FASTER IN TAKING THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. WILL INCLUDE
CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
SW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DAYTIME HEATING. WIND SPEED 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS
FROM 30 TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODEL TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THAT SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THU WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10
KTS...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING/EFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT WITH POSSIBLE IFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

S

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...LCV