FXUS65 KABQ 302206
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
306 PM MST MON NOV 30 2009
.DISCUSSION...BANDS OF SNOW ARE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW NOTED NEAR SIERRA BLANCA AND
THE RUIDOSO VICINITY. BROADER AND MORE INTENSE
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY RAINFALL...IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH
SIERRA AND DONNA ANNA COUNTIES JUST OUTSIDE OUR CWA. STILL
EXPECTING THESE HEAVIER BATCHES OF PRECIP TO TRANSITION NORTHWARD
AS NIGHT FALLS...GIVING WAY TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE MID SLOPE TO HIGH ELEVATION AREAS. WILL CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTS AS
CURRENTLY HOISTED. MODELS SEEM TO BE SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIP IN
THE SOUTHWEST FAIRLY EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP
STATEMENT TIME FRAMES AS IS FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA
TUESDAY...LIKELY WARMING ENOUGH TO CHANGE SOME PRECIP BACK OVER TO
RAIN IN MANY PLAINS/VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO TEXAS TUESDAY
EVENING...A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL BE ROARING TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA. THIS WILL SET UP A COLD PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE REMAINING SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS COLD FRONT AND FORCING
ALOFT KEEP SOME PRECIP CHANCES IN THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED
TEMPERATURES DOWN CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND
HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS. PRECIP WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES...TRENDING SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASE. MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT GENEROUS
WITH QPF AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY AS STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN OFTEN
PACK A MIGHTY BUT LOCALIZED PUNCH TO THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST.
HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES SOME IN THE EXTENDED...MOSTLY LOWER.
EXTENDED POPS AND WEATHER WERE UNCHANGED DUE TO FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT 4 TO 8 PERIODS.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
THE AREA IS DIVIDED BY GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
AND OVERCAST SKIES ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH. PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG
FROM THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOCALES SUCH AS
KFMN... KSAF...AND KGUP IS NOT DEPICTED BY BUFKIT PROFILES AND MOS
GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THIS DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. WILL HINT AT DEVELOPMENT IN 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH FROM THE GILA EAST ACROSS SOCORRO
COUNTY INTO THE SACRAMENTO MTS AND THE SE PLAINS...RAIN/SNOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS TO 010 AND LIFR VSBYS TO 1/2SM...
ESPECIALLY AT KSRR. ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 01Z ACROSS
THE SOUTH. KROW IS STILL THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FOR PERSISTENT
SNOWFALL HOWEVER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS NEAR 030 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS TO
NEAR IFR AROUND 010. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR VERY SLOWLY FROM NW
TO SE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES THIS MORNING ARE LIKELY
AGAIN TONIGHT...EVEN AREAS WITHOUT PRECIP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN FRINGE FROM THE GILA
EAST ACROSS SOCORRO COUNTY...THE SACRAMENTO MTS...AND THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. A FEW SNOTEL SITES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH
ARE ALREADY PUSHING 1 FOOT FOR THIS EVENT.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS EXPECTED TO CRAWL EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN OLD MEXICO BEFORE
TURNING EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHEST MIN RH VALUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST TUESDAY THEN AREAWIDE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED HIGHER RH VALUES.
AN UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH INTO NM LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR EXCELLENT RH VALUES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY.
GUYER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 23 50 22 47 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 14 48 16 44 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 15 46 13 43 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 15 49 14 47 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 15 47 14 46 / 5 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 17 50 13 49 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 17 47 15 49 / 20 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 26 50 23 55 / 30 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 11 44 11 38 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 19 48 19 42 / 5 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 19 46 18 39 / 5 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 11 44 12 36 / 0 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 11 39 10 29 / 0 0 5 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 9 41 8 32 / 5 0 10 20
TAOS............................ 10 48 11 39 / 5 0 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 15 52 15 45 / 5 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 21 47 22 41 / 5 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 23 48 23 42 / 5 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 26 52 27 49 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 29 51 30 49 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 20 54 22 51 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 22 53 24 51 / 10 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 18 51 19 52 / 10 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 26 52 27 50 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 21 46 22 50 / 40 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 17 49 16 46 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 16 48 16 43 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 22 41 21 37 / 10 5 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 23 45 21 46 / 40 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 24 42 21 47 / 70 30 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 21 35 18 42 / 80 60 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 16 50 17 31 / 5 0 10 20
RATON........................... 14 51 20 33 / 5 0 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 21 46 20 36 / 5 0 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 26 51 22 35 / 5 5 10 10
ROY............................. 22 46 19 38 / 5 5 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 25 48 26 43 / 5 10 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 26 46 24 45 / 10 10 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 28 47 25 41 / 10 20 20 5
CLOVIS.......................... 30 40 27 40 / 20 40 30 5
PORTALES........................ 28 40 25 42 / 30 50 30 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 26 44 23 44 / 30 20 20 5
ROSWELL......................... 31 39 31 46 / 70 60 20 5
PICACHO......................... 26 41 25 46 / 80 60 10 5
ELK............................. 23 37 20 43 / 80 60 10 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ536>538.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ539-540.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ520-524-525.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ509.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ526.
&&
$$
52/GUYER
