FXUS61 KBTV 111149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. EXPECT
GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN TODAY ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 441 AM EST FRIDAY...STILL DEALING WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR
TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MAIN BAND OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
HAS SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL BE JUST
SOUTH OF OUR NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES OF NEW YORK. AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO RECEIVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS FROM THIS BAND APPEAR TO
BE WESTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES OF VERMONT. FAST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SNOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL VERMONT AND ENHANCE AMOUNTS. OVER THE NORTHERN
AREAS...COULD STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...BUT THIS TIME
FROM MOISTURE COMING OF LAKE HURON. LESSER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS BAND. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THUS HAVE DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY
FROM YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW
NORMAL. EVENTUALLY THE LAKE BANDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 441 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL TAKE OVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STILL LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT FOR CLEAR AND
RELATIVELY COLD CONDITIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY
WITH THE HIGH PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAY BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 441 AM EST FRIDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING ENOUGH TO HELP CHANGE ANY
PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY AND SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE
RAIN/SNOW RANGE. COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WINDS
ALSO DEVELOPING TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EVENTUALLY LOOKING AT SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT
00Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK...KMPV...AND KRUT. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE VFR WITH RESPECT TO VISIBILITIES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...WHICH WILL BE SAGGING
SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE THREAT FOR SNOW WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER 00Z AS
WELL WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...12Z SAT-12Z SUN...MAINLY VFR UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z SUN-12Z MON...AREAS OF MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. 12Z
MON-06Z TUE...MAINLY VFR. 06Z TUE-00Z WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ018-
     019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN