FXUS63 KGID 241742
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1142 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009

.AVIATION...18Z TAF. HIGH WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 30 TO 45KTS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THOSE STRONG WINDS
WILL RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 3 TO 6
MILES. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER 
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STARTS
TO CHURN. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LAST PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING FURTHER AT THAT TIME. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009/ 

AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR NEARLY
THE ENTIRE FORECAST. STRONG NORTH/NORTH NORTHWEST WIND WILL ENSURE
THAT THERE IS NEARLY CONTINUOUS BLOWING AND DRIFTING FOR THIS
FORECAST...WITH THE WIND ACTUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE STRONGER
TOWARD TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT...BUT THE BIGGEST FACTOR FOR REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL
MORE LIKELY BE FROM BLOWING SNOW THAT IS ALREADY ON THE GROUND.
CEILINGS COULD BE TRICKY. CEILINGS HAVE RAISED TO VFR AS OF LATE
WITH A LOSS OF ANY LOW TO MID LEVEL CEILINGS JUST TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS PROGGED SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AND A RETURN TO MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINTER WEATHER 
AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. 

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS MOST 
OF THE AREA. THERE IS PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AROUND 
THE AREA...BUT FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING ANY PRECIPITATION AND 
THOSE THAT ARE TEND TO BE UNKNOWN. WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED FOR 
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR THE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN ONLY 3 
TO 5 MILES FROM BLOWING SNOW. SO FAR MOST OF THE SNOW HAS BEEN 
DRIFTING. 

MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND FOR LESS PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT. 
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE 
FORECAST AREA AND THEREFORE EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION 
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL 
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH QUITE COLD TEMPERATURES. THE 
DENDRITIC LAYER IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE SO EXPECT THERE MIGHT 
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE 
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE 
WIND. WINDS AT 850MB INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 KTS AND CONTINUE STRONG 
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING 
SNOW FROM THE SNOW WE HAD ON WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW 
FALLING HAVE NO REASON TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING. 
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TODAY AND TONIGHT MAINLY DUE TO 
BLOWING SNOW SO WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO REPLACE THE 
WARNING. 

ON CHRISTMAS DAY THOUGH THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS 
MISSOURI AND IOWA. EXPECT THAT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH 
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY IN THE DAY. SNOW AMOUNTS 
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE BEST 
CHANCE FOR SNOW AND FOR THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. 
THE WINDS CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND WITH THE SNOW FALLING AND 
BLOWING SNOW EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED QUITE A BIT. BY 
FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND 
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AND 
MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW YET. FINALLY ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW 
MOVES OUT AND GRADUALLY THE SNOW COMES TO AN END. EXPECT THERE MAY 
EVEN BE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS DECREASE ON 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. 

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$