FXUS62 KFFC 220725
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
225 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ALL 
MODELS DEEPEN THE H5 LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING OVER THE 
NORTHWEST U.S. THIS LOW WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND 
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN 
A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL USUALLY BRING WARMER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
AN H5 LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE
RIDGE TO NOSE INTO THE CWA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THE SOURCE REGION
STILL HAS A GOOD SNOW PACK AND DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WARMING. IN FACT TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH A SLOW COOLING
THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES THURSDAY PER GFS/ECMWF. THIS
IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN A TREND
IN THE MODELS. WILL NOT INTRODUCE POPS UNTIL THURSDAY WITH RAIN
BECOMING LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY GREATLY LACKING ON
THURSDAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE
AN OVERRUNNING EVENT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. ALTHOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE CUT BACK ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ESF FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. BOTH HAVE 
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE/PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING 
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT NOON...THEN THERE SHOULD 
BE A DRYING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS 
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER OVER MOST OF THE CWA. GFS
IS BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE CWA NEXT TUESDAY...YESTERDAY
IT WAS DOING IT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND IT IS CONTINUING THAT TREND. WILL DOWNPLAY THE POPS AND
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  34  55  38  48 /   0   0   0  10  40 
ATLANTA         56  38  55  40  51 /   0   0   0  10  60 
BLAIRSVILLE     51  32  52  33  46 /   0   0   0   5  50 
CARTERSVILLE    55  35  55  38  49 /   0   0   0   5  60 
COLUMBUS        61  37  61  45  60 /   0   0   0  10  60 
GAINESVILLE     54  36  54  38  45 /   0   0   0  10  50 
MACON           60  35  61  41  59 /   0   0   0  10  50 
ROME            57  34  55  40  50 /   0   0   0   5  70 
PEACHTREE CITY  57  33  57  38  53 /   0   0   0  10  60 
VIDALIA         60  39  63  46  61 /   0   0   0  10  30 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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