FXUS61 KCLE 252354
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
654 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN
SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL
PUSH OFF THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE LITTLE
TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWING RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS
WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO A GAP IN PRECIP AND EVEN
CLOUDINESS...EVIDENT ON SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ALLOW FOR
A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP THIS EVENING FROM ABOUT CLE TO CAK.
HOWEVER...THINKING EVEN THERE SHOWERS OVER SW OH AND IN WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ISSUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE PRECIP TRANSITION AS COLDER AIR
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. H850 TEMPS DROPPING DOWN FROM W TO
E ACROSS THE AREA AFTER AROUND 03Z. FOR NOW MENTIONED A TRANSITION
FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHILE
WARMER AIR AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
PERSIST THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN MIXING WITH
SNOW DURING SECOND HALF. GUIDANCE TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOWING LOWS
ONLY DROPPING TO LOWER 30S ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...WITH WESTERN
AREAS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOOKING AT REGIONAL OBS
THIS MAY BE REASONABLE AS COLDER AIR WITH THE LOW TO THE WEST
ADVECTING MORE NORTHEASTWARD INTO INDIANA WITH A LACK OF EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. TEMPS MAY EVEN GET A BIT WARMER FOR MOST AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN DROP BACK LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THINKING AFTER 06Z THE COLDER AIR WILL MAKE BETTER PROGRESS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES.
OTHER ITEMS FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN RATHER CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SOME
ISOLATED AREAS REACHING ADVISORY. WILL BE CONTINUING WITH ADVISORY
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT AREAS OF FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW
PA ALONG THE LAKESHORE MAY SEE WINDS PERSIST A BIT LONGER...SO
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A POSSIBLE
EXTENSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS BUILDING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING SO CUT BACK ON POPS WITH ONLY A MENTION OF SLGT CHC FOR
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS BOTH FAR WESTERN AREAS AS WELL AS
NW PA. THIS LOOKS TO BE A LULL PERIOD IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA...THEN AS LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LOW BEGIN PROGRESSING
EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY INCREASED POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FROM LAKE
EFFECT BEHIND UPPER LOW WHEN SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE. SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP FOR EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE
THE SNOWBELT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THEN
HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
COLDEST TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS MOVE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPS RECOVERING A BIT ON TUESDAY BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW. WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE
BUILDS AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE...ALSO ACROSS THE AREA...BREAKS DOWN.
WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST
TO OUR WEST WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT OF CANADIAN OR MODIFIED
ARCTIC ORIGIN TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUING FRIDAY. WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN AND FLOW OFF THE
LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND
IT. WITH REGARD TO THE SNOW SHOWERS NOT THAT WORRIED ABOUT IT FROM
AN ACCUMULATION OR VISIBILITY PROBLEM AS A DRY SLOT WILL BE
DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AND FOR SATURDAY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKY CONDITIONS IN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 THOUSAND FOOT CEILINGS.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
EAST WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO VEER ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTH HALF OF
THE LAKE. DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND
GUSTY ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE FROM AROUND CLEVELAND EASTWARD UNTIL
THE OCCLUDED FRONT SLIDES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AFTER THE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. THE GRADIENT IS NOT AS STRONG ON SATURDAY AND THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE WIND. THE GRADIENT WILL PICK BACK UP ON
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AND THEN MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS WILL PUSH 30 KNOTS EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT MAY STAY JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ009>013-
019>021-029-030-089.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KOSARIK
