FXUS61 KLWX 280632 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
132 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST VORT LOBE ROTATING SEWD TOWARD MASON/DIXON LINE THIS
EVE...BUT DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHUD HOLD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO
A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ACROSS EXTREME NRN VA...NRN MD...AND ERN
WV THRU 6Z. THEREAFTER...WAVE SLIDES E OF AREA.

UPSLOPE SNOW REGIONS ACROSS WRN ZONES HAVE HAD LITTLE SNOW OVER
LAST FEW HOURS...AND WITH WINDS BCMG MORE WLY...MOISTURE FROM
GREAT LAKES WILL BE MINIMAL. THUS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
BE DROPPED. STILL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS XPCD OVNGT...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION UNDER ONE INCH.

NO OVERALL CHANGES TO FCST TOWARD MORNING...AS BREEZY AND COLDER
CONDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF ANOTHER BREEZY DAY /THO A TOUCH LESS THAN TODAY/ A FAIRLY 
QUIET DAY. THE UPSLOPE SNOW WILL DISSIPATE TO FLURRIES INTO THE 
PRE-DAWN HRS AND END BY LATE MRNG. SKIES WILL GENERALLY CLEAR 
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THO TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM-UP A COUPLE OF 
DEGREES FROM TODAY/S MAXIMA. BROAD SFC HIGH WILL SET-UP OVER THE 
DEEP SOUTH...W/ THE NRN EDGE OF THE HIGH SPILLING INTO THE MID ATLC 
ON SAT. THE GUSTY WILL STILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MUCH COLDER THAN 
THE AMBIENT TEMP TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT 
TO APPROACH/MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS 
TO LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...REDUCING DURING THE 
EVENING. 

LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY 
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT 
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. 

MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY MOVING 
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS OFF THE COAST WHILE 
THE ECMWF IS INLAND. SO TRACK AND ALSO TIMING DIFFERENCES WILL NEED 
TO BE RESOLVED IN FUTURE FORECASTS...BUT IT LOOKS AS IF SUCH A 
SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE CWA WITH SOME RAIN DURING THE 
MID WEEK TIME FRAME. THIS MAY BE FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE PRECIP LATE IN 
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MAY CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT/BKN 4-6FKT DECK OVER ALL BUT CHO WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY ERODE FROM S TO N ACRS THE AREA. NW
WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS SHUD CONT OVNGT AND THRU MID AFTN SAT.

HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
THAT MAY PRODUCE MVFR SHOWERS. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DISCONTINUED GALE WRNG IN ALL BUT LWR TIDAL POTOMAC AND LWR
MD CHSPK BAY...WHERE GUSTS TO 34 KT STILL NOTED. SMALL CRAFT ADZY
CONTS ALL ZONES AFTER 11Z THIS MRNG...AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED ACRS
LWR MARINE ZONES THRU 06Z SAT NGT. TEXT PRODUCTS UPDATED. PREV
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

GALE WARNING RMNS IN EFFECT THRU THE OVNGT. SOLID GALE CONDS
ACROSS MD CHESAPEAKE...WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO 35 KT OVR THE
TIDAL POTOMAC. CAA AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DIMINISH ENUF TO
KEEP WINDS BELOW 30 KT SAT...BUT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SUNDAY AND IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MAY SETTLED IN BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY 
     FOR ANZ534-537-543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ534-537-
     543.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR
PREV DISCUSSION...SBK/GMS/PELOQUIN