FXUS65 KABQ 072202
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
302 PM MST MON DEC 7 2009
...MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS NEW MEXICO...
.DISCUSSION...
SLUG OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE STATE AS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. OROGRAPHICS
HAVE HELPED TO DEPOSIT UP TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WEST
SLOPES AND HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. WILL ADD THE SANTA FE METRO AREA TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING
IMMEDIATELY AS AREA WEB CAMS ALREADY SHOWING SOME DECENT SNOWFALL.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WEST FACING SLOPES AND
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUANS...WHERE ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW IS LIKELY...AND
SOME AREAS MAY PICK UP AS MUCH AS THREE FEET. AS WINDS PICK UP
LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AS BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
COMMON. BEST DYNAMICS ARE YET TO ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
EXPECT SNOW TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STILL THINK WARNING AMOUNTS IN THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAY BE MARGINAL WARNING CRITERIA...BUT
AGAIN...STRONG WINDS WILL OFFSET THIS CONCERN.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE.
MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF ZONE
508...WHERE UP TO 16 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. PER RADAR IMAGERY...MOGOLLON RIM IS ALREADY LIGHTING UP
IN ARIZONA WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW. AS THE SYSTEM NEARS...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO MOVE OVER THE MOGOLLON MOUNTAINS OF SW NM TONIGHT. 700MB
JET OF 60 TO 80KT WILL ALSO TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CREATE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL CONDITIONS TREACHEROUS.
WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES 521-523 TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR A
WARNING...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 35-45 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 OR 65 MPH AS AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW HOURS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED BELOW ONE QUARTER MILES IN BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF I-40. ONCE
AGAIN...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NOT REACH WARNING CRITERIA FOR MANY
AREAS...BUT THE VERY STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH THE SNOWFALL WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON. SOME CONCERN
EXISTS THAT LAS VEGAS WILL HAVE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH...HOWEVER...WILL NOT CONFUSE THE ISSUE BY CHANGING THE
HEADLINE. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP...WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS AND AREAS WEST OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR.
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING AND INCLUDED ZONE 532. ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST WHERE WINDS MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY LESS GIVEN THAT THE SURFACE
LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD.
PRECIPITATION WILL SHUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW...AND BLOWING
SNOW...REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL INCH IS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...THOUGH COLD AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MUCH OF THE WIND WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND MAY BLOW AROUND SNOW
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
DISTURBANCES IN ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT
IN PERIODIC SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS
TIME...DOES NOT LOOK TO BE HEAVY...BUT LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD KEEP IT
ACTIVE.
34
&&
.AVIATION...
RAIN AND SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS WRN AND NRN NEW MEXICO EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDDAY TUESDAY. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z...WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR TAF SITES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUE...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT AND SUSTAINED MT OBSCURATIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE
PRECIPITATION...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAN OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST FOR THE DAY
TUESDAY. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 KTS ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...TO INCLUDE KSAF AND KABQ. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER-RELATED ELEMENT WILL BE
VERY STRONG AND SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL BUFFET MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL BE
AMONG THE STRONGEST OBSERVED SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH GUSTS OF
60-70 MPH FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT MODERATION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
KJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 31 33 15 34 / 90 70 5 5
DULCE........................... 26 30 8 27 / 100 80 10 5
CUBA............................ 26 31 8 32 / 90 90 10 5
GALLUP.......................... 31 34 8 34 / 90 60 5 5
EL MORRO........................ 27 32 9 33 / 80 80 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 30 35 10 36 / 70 70 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 27 36 13 39 / 80 70 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 33 43 18 47 / 90 80 10 0
CHAMA........................... 18 27 4 27 / 100 100 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 23 32 9 31 / 80 80 10 5
PECOS........................... 25 35 10 35 / 70 90 10 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 21 29 -3 24 / 90 90 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 18 24 -2 24 / 90 90 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 18 27 0 25 / 80 90 20 10
TAOS............................ 24 31 5 27 / 80 80 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 28 37 14 35 / 80 80 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 27 33 11 30 / 80 80 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 29 35 14 33 / 70 80 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 32 39 20 40 / 50 70 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 33 40 21 41 / 40 60 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 32 41 18 42 / 40 60 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 32 39 21 41 / 40 60 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 28 45 18 46 / 30 50 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 31 39 21 41 / 40 60 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 34 48 23 49 / 30 50 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 29 35 14 36 / 60 80 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 27 35 17 36 / 50 70 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 27 33 15 33 / 40 80 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 32 40 22 43 / 40 60 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 32 46 21 47 / 30 50 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 33 41 26 45 / 40 50 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 17 33 2 28 / 50 50 10 5
RATON........................... 21 35 10 31 / 70 50 10 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 25 35 12 33 / 70 60 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 19 37 9 31 / 50 30 5 5
ROY............................. 21 40 18 34 / 50 30 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 30 47 20 42 / 30 30 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 29 48 23 45 / 30 30 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 28 47 19 42 / 20 20 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 25 53 20 46 / 10 20 5 0
PORTALES........................ 26 56 21 47 / 10 20 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 27 52 22 49 / 20 20 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 30 59 25 56 / 5 20 5 0
PICACHO......................... 30 54 25 55 / 10 20 5 0
ELK............................. 31 47 27 51 / 20 30 5 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ520-524>526-539-540.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ532>538.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ530-531.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501>506-509>518.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ507-519-527>529.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521>523.
&&
$$
34/KJ
