FXUS64 KMRX 220812
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH TEMPS HOVERING 
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME FOG HAS 
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH MAY CAUSE 
SOME FREEZING FOG PROBLEMS IN A FEW AREAS IF IT BECOMES TOO DENSE. 
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE WEST MAY KEEP THIS FOG FROM 
BECOMING TOO DENSE AND WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING...BUT WILL MONITOR 
CLOSELY SINCE SOME BLACK ICE MAY DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS. HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 
THROUGH TONIGHT...PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. 
AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY 
BUT SHOW SOME DISCREPANCIES FOR TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT 
GUIDANCE TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHERE 
LINGERING SNOW COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COOLER)...AND WILL TREND 
TOWARDS THE COOLER GFS NUMBERS FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE 
REGION ON LATE WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP 
THE BEST CHANCES IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE 
IS PRESENT. MAY SEE A BRIEF RAIN-SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS 
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE TOO WARM ANY SIGNIFICANT 
ACCUMULATIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A STRONGER FRONT 
TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP 30 
TO 80 POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE WEST...THEN 
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT ALSO INCREASING...WITH 
A 60-70KT 850MB JET MOVING IN ON LATE THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING 
WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM LATE 
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MAY SEE A RAIN-SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL...BUT SHOULD BE TOO WARM ANY 
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. THE FRONT LINGERING INTO FRIDAY SO WILL 
LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE UPPER LOW 
LINGERS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY  WITH ONLY LIMITED 
MOISTURE...WILL KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE 
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY. 
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN   56  35  57  39  52 /   0   0  10  50  80 
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN     51  32  55  35  52 /   0   0   0  20  60 
OAK RIDGE, TN             51  32  54  35  52 /   0   0   0  30  70 
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN    44  28  49  31  49 /   0   0   0  10  50 
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/GH