FXUS61 KOKX 011746
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND THEN EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STORM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS NECESSARY. SHORTWAVE SHEARS THROUGH NORTH
OF THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION. SCT-BKN STRATO-CU WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...BUT SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FAR TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC METRO THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WSW FLOW
TODAY. HIGH GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...NEAR SEASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S AND THEN SE OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 30S...20S PINE BARRENS/INTERIOR VALLEYS...AROUND 40 NYC. SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN FAR OUTLYING AREAS.
FOR THE MOST PART MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BAJA LOW
EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...RACING TOWARDS THE NE
WED NIGHT AROUND A LARGE DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY REACHING INTO WESTERN NY BY THURS MORN. GFS IS STRONGEST
AND FURTHER SE OUTLIER WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
AS A RESULT...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
RACE NE...UP THE W SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT...INTO
WESTERN NY BY THURS MORNING. GFS IS STRONGEST AND FURTHEST SE
OUTLIER.
HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO FURTHER WEST AND WEAKER MODEL
CONSENSUS...BETTER CONSISTENCY.
INCREASING CLOUDS WED...LOWERING/THICKENING WED AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN LIKELY DEVELOPING
FROM SW TO NE LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING...THEN MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND RISING TEMPS LIKELY WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING
AS A 70-80 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS GULF/ATLANTIC
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT.
DEFINED THETA-E RIDGING WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER.
WITH A 70+ LOW LEVEL JET AT 900 HPA...WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 50S...AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INLAND LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS (25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH) ACROSS NYC... COASTAL SECTIONS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING.
EXACT TIMING OF FRONT STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE...BUT PRECIP
SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF THURS MORN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT AS
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW RACE NE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC/NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT APPEARS CURRENTLY...BREEZY WESTERLY
FLOW...PARTIAL CLEARING IN WAKE OF LOW...AND SLOW CAA...WILL MAKE
FOR A MILD AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY WITH EARLY HIGHS IN THE
60S...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM...
HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES POP UP DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. MODELS DO
SHOW FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF TEMPERATURES ALOFT...
HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL PROBABLY BE TEMPERED
TO A DEGREE BY A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS THEREFORE ON
FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. H5 TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH THE TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE
DIFFERING AMONG THE MODELS. BEST GUESS WOULD BE FOR IT TO PASS
THROUGH LATE DAY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. MED RANGE GUIDANCE
ALL SHOW COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
PASSING EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. TRACK IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR SATURDAY...AND TREND MORE TOWARDS SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS RANGING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS AT THE SURFACE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A DRY
FORECAST AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. MID DECK IS CURRENTLY SCATTERING OUT AROUND CITY TERMINALS.
SHOULD SEE THIS OVER EASTERN TERMINALS WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS
WELL. KSWF WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUDS A BIT LONGER. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
BECOME SKC AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CLOUDS THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY W (260-270) 10-15G18-23KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW 10 KT AFTER SUNSET...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH TRANSITS
OVER THE AREA. S WINDS OF 5-10KT DEVELOP MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WINDS SHOULD LIKELY STAY LEFT OF 280.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
01/17Z 26012G20KT
01/18Z 27013G20KT
01/19Z 26012G19KT
01/20Z 26011G18KT
01/21Z 26010G17KT
01/22Z 27009KT
01/23Z 27008KT
02/00Z 27007KT
02/01Z 27006KT
02/02Z 26006KT
02/03Z 26005KT
KJFK...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.
KLGA...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.
KTEB...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.
KHPN...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.
KSWF...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LOW END VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.
KBDR...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.
KGON...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...BECOMING SUB-VFR WEDNESDAY EVENING...
WITH IFR AND LLWS PROBABLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT- FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR LIKELY WITH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT THIS TIME BUT WITH
BUOY 44097 REPORTING 5 FT SEAS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT 5 FT SEAS ARE
BEING REALIZED ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AT THIS
TIME. IN ANY CASE...EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK UP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SCA LEVELS INTO THIS EVE. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE.
CONDITIONS THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS UNTIL WED NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. GALES ARE
A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY INTO THU...BUT STILL TO EARLY FOR A GALE
WATCH. DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY PUT THE WATCH UP THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW INVERTED WE ARE. WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE GALES AND ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS IN THE HWO.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU NIGHT...WITH ALL BUT
THE OCEAN WATERS FALLING BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO SUBSIDE...THEREFORE SCA MAY BE NEEDED INTO FRI. A
COASTAL STORM PASSING TO THE EAST MAY CAUSE FLAGS TO RETURN ON
SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WED NIGHT INTO
THU.
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER ANOTHER COASTAL LOW COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT QPF THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE APPROACH OF A FULL MOON WILL KEEP ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HIGH
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES PASSING TO THE WEST COULD CAUSE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND THU MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR RIGHT
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...BUT DUE TO THE FAIRLY QUICK
PROGRESSION OF THE STORM...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AND
DECREASE SOME BY THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5
FT ARE NEEDED TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS IN THE
MORNING...2-2.5 FT IN THE EVENING. MODERATE FLOODING APPEARS
UNLIKELY DUE THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT...BUT WILL STILL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MORE VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAY
LOCATIONS OF NASSAU COUNTY.
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST
WITH THE SYSTEM...HENCE STRONGER WINDS AND LARGER DEPARTURES IN
THE STORM SURGE GUIDANCE. HAVE GONE MORE OF AN NAM/EC/SREF ROUTE
SO NOT TAKING THE GUIDANCE VERBATIM.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/JC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/AL
HYDROLOGY...NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AL
