FXUS61 KOKX 051517
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1017 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY BEFORE PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BY MID- WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS AS RAIN HAS SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF ICE PELLETS BRIEFLY MIXED WITH
THE RAIN ACROSS LONG ISLAND. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID
30S....AND UPDATED THOSE GRIDS.

LOW PRES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
WELL EAST OF CAPE COD AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
EVENING.

PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE RAIN. WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PERHAPS JUST WET SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE THE GROUND IS STILL QUITE
WARM...WILL NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES
LATE IN THE DAY. NORTHEAST GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN BECOMES HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS
AS THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO LONG ISLAND. THE LOW WILL PASS ALMOST
300 MILES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MONTAUK POINT. NORTHERLY WINDS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ALLOWING FOR ALL SNOW. BASED ON LATEST HPC
GUIDANCE AND ON EXPECTED LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS...ABOUT 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND PARTS OF
INTERIOR CT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH QPF CAN FALL OVER
THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL QPF APPEARS TO BE RUNNING A
BIT TOO HIGH...AND IF THE PRECIP ENDS BEFORE TEMPS DROP INTO THE
20S...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. CONVERSELY...IF
THERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE QPF THAN EXPECTED...WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST ORANGE AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES...POSSIBLY INTO NORTHER FAIRFIELD AND NEW HAVEN COUNTIES
AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW IN
MEETING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ONE
AT THIS TIME.

ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
WILL PRODUCE ABOUT 3/4 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS LONG ISLAND. ONLY
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW-LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
ACROSS NYC/COASTAL NJ...SOME WET SNOW IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S THIS EVENING. ONLY AN INCH OR SO IS
POSSIBLE...AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...AS THE GROUND IS STILL
QUITE WARM. EASTERN LONG ISLAND SHOULD STAY AS ALL RAIN.

WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH PASSAGE OF LOW PRES...NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND SLIGHTLY LESS INLAND.

HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION SUN BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON
MON. WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP...THEN HIGH PRES RETURNS ON TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT HIGH BUILDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MUCH STRONGER STORM THEN
APPROACHES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PRIMARY LOW PASSES ACROSS GRTLKS REGION REMAINING TO THE
WEST...AND THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTION FOR
SEVERAL RUNS NOW. AS SUCH...WARMER SCENARIO EXPECTED...BUT SOME
SNOW INCLUDED IN GRIDS DUE TO SFC TEMPS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
LESS SNOW IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
STORM. STAY TUNED.

BEHIND THE LOW...GUSTY SW TO W WINDS EXPECTED WITH COLDER TEMPS TO 
END THE WEEK. WINDS BEGIN TO ABATE LATER FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIP ALREADY DEVELOPING JUST S OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIFT
N INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CONDS LIKELY AT AREA
TERMS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...EARLIEST AT SOUTHERN TERMS. PROFILES
LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY -SN AT KSWF. EXPECT CHANGEOVER
TO -SN AT FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. IT
COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER OR LATER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET DURING TRANSITION AS WELL...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON LENGTH OF OCCURRENCE. VSBY
SHOULD RAPIDLY FALL TO IFR AND THEN POSSIBLY LIFR ONCE RAIN
CHANGES OVER TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE FROM NW TO SE...WITH
CIGS FALLING TO IFR. CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY THRU
MVFR TO IFR BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS
THRU...WITH CLEARING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

NE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BACKING N THIS EVENING
AND MAXING OUT 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20 KT
RANGE. WINDS BACK FURTHER TO THE NW AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN MORN.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUN THROUGH WED... 
SUN-TUE...VFR. 
WED...SUB-VFR...WIND/RAIN

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS PICK UP TO SCA LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NE FROM CAROLINA COAST. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
TRACKS NE THROUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD TIGHTEN FURTHER AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING IN LOW-LEVEL
CAA...SO EXPECTING LOW END N/NE GALE GUSTS DEVELOPING OVER THE
OCEAN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
COULD REACH NEAR GALE ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND/AND EASTERN
BAYS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THAT YET...SO HAVE
HOISTED A GALE WATCH. DAY SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND WITH NEXT MODEL CYCLE. HIGH END SCA GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD
TO 6 TO 9 FT TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN...AND 3 TO 5 FT ON THE SOUND.

WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE WATERS WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON AND
SEAS QUICKLY FALLING SUIT. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS MAY NEAR SCA MON
NIGHT IN WAKE OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SHOT OF CAA.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY AS MUCH STRONGER
STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/3 TO 1/2 INCH QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR CT...WHILE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
QPF WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS A
COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MINOR PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE PASSED WITH JUST HUDSON BAY JUST REACHING
THE MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARK. TIDAL DEPARTURES RAN ABOUT A FOOT
ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL.

THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE FALLS
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY HAVE DEPARTURES INCREASING TO 1
1/2 TO 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUND/SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN BAYS/AND NY HARBOR BY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TWO TO 2
1/2 FT POSITIVE DEPARTURES ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. SO AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF THESE LEVELS...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. WILL NOT ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR A LOW END SECOND PERIOD THREAT...ALLOWING DAYSHIFT TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND RE-EVALUATE.

AROUND 1 1/2 FT DEPARTURES NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
DURING SUN MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW...EXPECTING TIDES TO STAY BELOW MINOR
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR 
     ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR 
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$