FXUS64 KMAF 252337
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
537 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO AREA WILL PASS ACROSS TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
NORTH WIND AT UP TO 10 KTS WILL GO LIGHT TONIGHT AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
ON SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
DEEP COLD MID/UPPER LOW IN THE MIDWEST DOMINATES PATTERN THIS PM 
WITH SFC RIDGING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN W TX. SATELLITE INDICATES
SNOW PACK IS STILL HOLDING ACRS THE FAR N-NE CWFA WHICH WILL AGAIN
AFFECT TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPS...WHERE MID AND UPPER TEENS ARE PROBABLE.
PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING WILL HOLD INTO SAT PM AND 85H TEMPS WILL
RISE TO NEAR 0C OR JUST ABOVE ACRS CNTRL PB AND TO 9-10C ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE...SO ANOTHER DAY WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS FOR PB/SE NM.
MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY AS RATHER EXPANSIVE SFC ANTICYCLONE TO W
OF COLD/DEEP MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE W TX WX. MID
LEVEL FLOW DOES BEGIN TO CHANGE THOUGH BECOMING MORE WLY. 85H
TEMPS WARM A DEGREE OR 2 AND WILL REFLECT ONLY A SLIGHT WARM-UP
SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND PERSISTENT THAT COLD
AIR WILL REMAIN PUSHED UP AGAINST MTNS DESPITE STRENGTHENING SW
MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD 5H LOW NEARING BAJA. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
OF WARMER TEMPS TRYING TO NOSE E ACRS MRF PLATEAU AND DAVIS MTNS
MONDAY PM BUT EVEN THAT IS MODEST (10C). BY TUE MORNING MID/UPPER
TROF AXIS WILL BE NEARING. 25H JET OF 100-110KTS WILL HAVE ROUNDED
THE BASE OF TROUGH. 85H-7H WINDS RESPOND AND 85H-7H WAA WILL INCREASE
BY 12Z TUE...WITH GFS 7H-5H OMEGA SHOWING LIFT ACRS MUCH OF CWFA.
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE TOO WITH GFS SHOWING 75H BASED
LI/S 0F 0 AND 7H-5H LR/S OF 7-7.5 C/KM WHICH IS STEEPER THAN
ECMWF. ATTP LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING
HRS TUE WHICH OF COURSE IS WHEN IT WILL THE COLDEST. ECMWF CONTINUES
TO THE BE COLDEST AND WETTEST WITH 12Z GFS SHOWING AN INCONSISTENT
SOLN FROM DATA 24HRS PREVIOUS. ECMWF SOUNDINGS FROM TRANS PECOS TO
PB SUGGEST ALL SNOW AT 12Z TUE. ATTP WILL OPT TO TREND POPS UP BUT
KEEPING QPF LOW. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV
TROF FOLLOWING QUICKLY IN WAKE OF TUE/S LOW. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
LATER WED WITH COLD FRONT THUR MORNING. MEANWHILE ARCTIC AIR WILL
LIKELY BE MOVING S THRU THE WRN HIGH PLAINS THUR PM MAKING FRIDAY
YET ANOTHER COLD DAY.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$