FXUS64 KMEG 240534 AAC
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1134 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
CONTINUES TO DIG SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL
KEEP UPPER LEVEL WINDS NEARLY DUE SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE SET UP EXTEND FROM VICTORIA
TEXAS TO TEXARKANA TO PADUCAH. THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER ARKANSAS WILL TRAIN ALONG THE SAME AREAS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
MERIDIONAL FLOW. THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT LEAST NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL ARE WARRANTED THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY. SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE.
AC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A STRENGTHENING LOW OVER TEXAS WILL TRACK TO THE ARKLATEX REGION
TONIGHT...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY THURSDAY
EVENING...AND TO IOWA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE MIDSOUTH. STRONG
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE NEAR THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A WIND GUST GREATER THAN 50 MPH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHERE THE BEST MIXING WILL OCCUR. THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
HANDLED BY A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INHIBIT MAJOR FLOOD PROBLEMS EXCEPT FOR
SOME ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING AT LOW SPOTS. SEVERE WEATHER FROM
PURE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR CWA DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY.
THE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER IOWA THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY BEFORE
TRACKING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
WRAPPING IN COLD AIR AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK PROVING SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT
SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
SWC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE.
EXPECT CIGS TO DECREASE TO IFR GRADUALLY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LIFR CIGS ARE IFFY AT BEST GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT SO WILL KEEP THINGS AOA 005. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND MAY GUST IN EXCESS OF
30 KNOTS BY 24/12Z...AND 35 KNOTS BY 18Z. AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z...THERE COULD BE
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG IT WHICH MAY ASSIST IN
STRONGER WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 45-50 KNOTS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
VEER SOUTHWEST AFTER FROPA. WIND SHEAR EXPECTED UNTIL FROPA WITH
50-60 KNOTS NEAR 1500 FT.
AS FOR PRECIP...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF
EAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN AT KJBR.
THINK MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL NORTHWEST OF KTUP
AND KMKL UNTIL MID MORNING BUT WILL CONTINUE VCSH AT KMEM SINCE
THE FAR EASTERN EDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE RIVER.
BORGHOFF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 52 57 34 42 / 100 100 50 10
MKL 50 58 35 40 / 90 100 60 10
JBR 50 53 33 39 / 100 100 40 10
TUP 51 62 37 44 / 60 100 60 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-YALOBUSHA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
