FXUS61 KBGM 260907
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
407 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND RAIN IN THE VALLEYS WILL CHANGE TO ALL
RAIN BY AFTERNOON. AS THE RAIN ENDS TONIGHT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN
BEFORE IT ENDS. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 407 AM...THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT IS
NOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NY STATE WITH MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS MOVING
BACK INTO OUR AREA. THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS IOWA THAT IS CAUSING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IS BEGINNING TO FILL
IN...WITH A SECONDARY LOW NOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. AS THIS LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST...THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FETCH OF AIR AROUND THIS LOW...AND A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR
NORTHEAST...WILL KEEP THE FOCUS OF THE MOST STEADY PRECIP OVER THE
SE FACING SLOPES OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. ELSEWHERE THIS SAME
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE MOST OF THE AREA...KEEPING THE
SHOWERS MUCH MORE SCATTERED.

PTYPE IS MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE
TEMPS BEING ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. I DROPPED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FARTHER EAST HOWEVER...FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY COLDER SECTIONS OF OUR AREA...INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS
AND THE POCONOS. IN ADDITION WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR
FUNNELING UP THE MOHAWK VALLEY...COLD AIR HAS MADE IT AS FAR WEST
AS NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INCLUDING THE CITY OF SYRACUSE.
SPOTTER REPORTS FROM THIS AREA SHOW THAT AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF ICE FELL IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION OF ICE IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF TOWN.

THE COLD AIR IS MOST ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY ALONG WITH THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS...AND THIS IS
WHERE FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING...AND PERHAPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF SYRACUSE...SURFACE TEMPS ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY
ABOVE FREEZING AS WE SPEAK. DOT ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOWEVER
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED AREAS SUCH AS
BRIDGES AND ON/OFF RAMPS. I KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LIGHT ICING
POTENTIAL...DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS RISING DURING THE PERIOD.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS...COLDER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE OCCLUSION
FROM THE MIDWEST STORM. AS THIS HAPPENS IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF STEUBEN COUNTY LATE TODAY WHERE
THE CHANGE TO SNOW MAY PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMS.

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED INITIALLY BUT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES COMPLETELY. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET
WEATHERWISE AS OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE QUIET WEATHER SWEET SPOT
WITH THE SECONDARY LOW MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND THE REMNANTS
OF THE MIDWEST STORM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENJOY THE QUIET
WEATHER BECAUSE THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW WILL OUTLINE SOME
EXCITING CHANGES HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES NORTH TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... ACCOMPANIED BY
MORE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE GENERALLY WARM
ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN WEST OF I-81 AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. FARTHER
EAST AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY HANG ON FOR AWHILE...
WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY NOT GETTING ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE
IN THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY UNTIL SOMETIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. 

THE LAST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
DRYING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO THROW MUCH MOISTURE BACK INTO INCREASINGLY
COOL AIR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... SO THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL
BE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO END BEFORE ANY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW. 

SUNDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET IN A WEAK COLD ADVECTION PATTERN BEHIND
THE CURRENT SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT
PLAINS BLIZZARD WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING PROBABLY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS BEHIND THAT SYSTEM MONDAY...
THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     UPDATED AS OF 245 AM...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF
THE AREA.

FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORIES. THE
BEST CONCENTRATION OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FROM
THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY
START OUT 290-300 BEHIND THE FRONT...ULTIMATELY VEERING TO AROUND
320. THIS WOULD LIKELY MEAN A MULTI-BAND SET UP FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL NY. 

LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE ON THE
WANE...AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN. 

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK/START OF THE NEW YEAR...A LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN THAT POTENTIALLY FAVORS AN EAST COAST STORM COULD
DEVELOP...WITH PRONOUNCED GREENLAND BLOCKING...AND A POSITIVE PNA SET UP.
THE EURO/CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THIS MOST STRONGLY...DEVELOPING A
MAJOR STORM ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
SUPPRESSED...KEEPING ANY EFFECTS FROM SUCH A SYSTEM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...WITH JUST A CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN A
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. FOR NOW...WE'LL PLAY IT
CONSERVATIVELY...AND CONTINUE TO CALL FOR JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. WE'LL BE WATCHING THIS SITUATION AS THE WEEK UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KRME...PERIODIC LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR...OR JUST BELOW 32F.
READINGS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING. 

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. 

AT KSYR...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 32F.

VFR EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR. 

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME.

AT KITH...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN...ALONG WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS...SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR AFTER 00Z.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME DECREASE IN WINDS THEREAFTER. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR MAY BE AN ISSUE EARLY THIS MORNING. 

FOR KELM...PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN...ALONG WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS...WILL PREVAIL. 

SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...DECREASING THEREAFTER.

AT KBGM...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 32F. IFR CEILINGS ALSO
ANTICIPATED. 

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING BY 15Z...WITH JUST
LIGHT RAIN THEREAFTER. IFR WILL REMAIN PREVALENT.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-25 KT WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE TIME. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS
OF 40-50 KT AT ABOUT 2 THOUSAND FEET AGL. 

FINALLY AT KAVP...MVFR AND PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN SHOULD RULE MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. 

SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A CONCERN EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH AGAIN
WINDS OF 40-50 KT JUST OFF THE DECK. 

.OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON/TUE...MVFR...WITH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...MOSTLY AT
NY SITES. 
WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
     NYZ018-025-036-044-045-055-056.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     NYZ062.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     NYZ009-037-046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJN/MLJ