FXUS61 KRLX 251815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
108 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF CHRISTMAS
DAY DIMINISH TONIGHT. TURNING GRADUALLY COLDER OVER THE 
WEEKEND...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAH HUMBUG...WORKING ON CHRISTMAS DAY AGAIN. WHITE CHRISTMAS DAWN 
MAINLY FROM N CENTRAL WV AND THE MTNS INTO EASTERN PANHANDLE.  

CANCELED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLY...BUT 
TEMPERATURES ARE BEHAVING AS WE THOUGHT YESTERDAY.  THE TEMPERATURE 
WAS AROUND FREEZING AT BKW UNTIL AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...DESPITE 
YESTERDAYS MOS GUIDANCE HAVING READINGS NEAR 40 DEGREES FOR THIS 
MORNING.

A FEW COLDER SPOTS IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY MAY STILL HAVE ICE INTO 
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE ICE STORM WARNING THERE FOR NOW.

DRY SLOT SHOULD REACH HTS BY NOON...THEN SLOWLY CREEP E.  500 MB 
VORTICITY MAX SWINGS THROUGH NRN KY INTO OHIO THIS EVENING...SHOULD 
KEEP SOME SHOWERS REFORMING...DO NOT READY TO REMOVE CHANCE POPS.

MOST WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING...THAT I HAVE SEEN...ARE IN THE 40 TO 
50 MPH RANGE OVER THE HIGH WIND WARNING. REMOTE SENSING HAS ABOUT 55 
KNOTS AT 4 THSD FT AGL AT 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW 500 MB TROUGH GRADUALLY SINKING INTO THE REGION OVER THE 
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND 
BRING IN COLDER AIR...ALLOWING FOR UPSLOPE SNOW CONDITIONS. WILL 
INCREASE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO BETTER REFLECT THESE 
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
PUSH EAST OF REGION MONDAY. HOWEVER....NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION...WITH 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUING 
THROUGH THURSDAY.  

MODELS SUGGEST AN SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY...WITH
THE STORM EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST NEW
YEARS DAY.  

HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY USED...WITH SOME TWEAKS TO 
REFLECT THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW SUBSIDES FROM S TO N 21Z TO 02Z. 

STILL HAVE MAIN RAIN SHIELD EXITING NE OF THE EKN TO BKW CORRIDOR 
BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SATURDAY.  A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN 
OHIO RIVER COUNTIES AFTER 00Z...WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 
POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z. 

WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 2 TO 4 THSD FT BKN TO OVC.  VSBY ONLY 3 TO 5 
MILES IN PCPN.  EKN FORECAST DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT...AS WIND 
DIMINISHED AND STILL RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS...SOME LOW STRATUS 
AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES MAY FORM IN THESE DEEPER AND STILL SNOW COVERED 
VALLEYS AFTER 03Z.

14Z TO 18Z SATURDAY SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT.  VSBY 
UNRESTRICTED.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ033>038-
     046-047.
     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RPY
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KTB