FXUS65 KPUB 112236
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
336 PM MST FRI DEC 11 2009
.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
...SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NEXT 24 HOURS...
UPPER DISTURBANCE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES MOVING THROUGH UTAH
AND ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH COLORADO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY KICKING OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE AT THIS TIME.
THESE SHOULD WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE
WITH TIME. SYSTEM COMING THROUGH IS PRETTY FRAGMENTED AND
MOISTURE DEFICIENT. SO...NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF SNOWFALL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 2-4 INCHES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE
10000 FEET. LITTLE...IF ANY...OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT FARTHER EAST. SO...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLY MILDER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
SHORTLY AFTER NOON TODAY...THE TEMPERATURE AT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE ROSE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE 1ST TIME IN THE
PAST 5 DAYS. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE CASE UP AND DOWN THE I-25
CORRIDOR...AND OUT ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON RIDGE WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. THE
UPPER ARKANSAS AND WET MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ARE ALSO ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FROM THE BUENA VISTA
AREA SOUTHWARD TO CANON CITY. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND MOST OF THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR ARE STILL GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SO...TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST AND TOMORROW WILL DEFINITELY
FEEL NICE. READINGS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW AREAS
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH 50 DEGREES. LW
.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A VERY HEALTHY
MOISTURE FEED STREAMING INTO UTAH AND WESTERN CO. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES HINTS AT BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A 24 HR PERIOD OF SUSTSAINED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD. TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT MODEL QPF...THEN HALVING IT...THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING MIDNIGHT SAT
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUN EVENING. THEREFORE...THIS POTENTIAL
COUPLED WITH THE FORECAST WINDS...LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS. EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL
QUESTIONABLE...BUT THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THE
FORECAST GRIDS AND SEE WHAT SORT OF UPDATED HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED. CURRENTLY...THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLE DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. AS FOR THE PLAINS...FEEL THAT THE PREDOMINANT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD WARM THINGS NICELY ON SUN AND KEEP IT DRY. AS
FOR MONDAY...SFC COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE PALMER DVD NEAR
MIDDAY...SO WHILE THE I25 CORRIDOR MIGHT SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S...THE FAR EAST WILL PROBABLY COOL QUICKER AS THE COLD POOL
SAGS IN.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE SFC FRONT DROPPING DOWN MIDDAY
MONDAY. BY WED...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETTLES IN THEN TRANSITIONS TO A
MORE NW DIRECTION ALOFT AS THE NEXT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE DESERT SW.
DRY AND GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED WED THRU FRI. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
FARTHER EAST...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. LW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-063-064-066-068.
&&
$$
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