FXUS64 KBMX 071704
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1104 AM CST MON DEC 7 2009

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WHILE IT IS NOT RAINING VERY HARD...IT IS (AND WILL BE) RAINING 
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM 
I-65 WESTWARD.  WILL BUMP UP POPS ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS ARE IN LINE 
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL ONLY NEED TO MAKE MINOR 
ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT DEPARTMENT.  UPDATED FOERCASTS OUT SHORTLY.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA 
AND MISSISSIPPI...STILL NOT EXPECTING FOR ANY OF THAT TO REACH THE 
GROUND AT ANY TAF SITE UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. ONCE PRECIP DOES 
GET GOING...IT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND THUS NOT BE NOT MUCH OF AN 
IMPACT. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TOI AND MGM THROUGH 15 TO 
16Z. MAY WORK INTO ANB SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP HERE AS WELL. AT 
THE RATE THE CLOUDS ARE ADVECTING NORTH...THEY MAY EVEN MAKE IT INTO 
EET. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH HERE...SO JUST WENT WITH A SCT DECK. 
THIS DECK WILL LIFT TO MORE OF A VFR RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE 
PERIOD. 

TUESDAY MORNING...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ANY LOW CLOUD 
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS AND GRAPHICAL INTERPRETATIONS ARE 
INDICATING A DIFFERENT STORY. FEEL AS THOUGH THE SCENARIO THIS 
MORNING WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. SO WITH THAT SAID HAVE INCLUDED 
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET FOR MGM AND TOI. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND WENT 
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND RN AT TCL AS THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY MOVES 
INTO THE AREA. COMPLICATED PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS....WITH NUMEROUS UPDATES NEEDED. STAY TUNED. 

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$